Sat, Feb 16, 2019·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Nashville Predators 1, Vegas Golden Knights 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 012 | 07 | 111 | 130 |
| VGK | 117 | 124 | 39 | 550 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:17VGKMax PaciorettyAssists: Cody Eakin, Oscar Lindberg · Wrist, 0.29 xG0–1
- P2 10:53VGKBrandon PirriPPGWGAssists: Reilly Smith, William Karlsson · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–2
- P3 1:56VGKShea TheodoreAssists: Paul Stastny, Alex Tuch · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–3
- P3 4:17NSHKevin FialaAssists: Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 13:48VGKOscar LindbergAssists: Alex Tuch · Snap, 0.08 xG1–4
- P3 15:17VGKMax PaciorettyUnassisted · Snap, 0.08 xG1–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 19:00NSHP.K. Subban: Interference2 min
- P1 19:40VGKJonathan Marchessault: Illegal check to head2 min
- P2 9:18NSHViktor Arvidsson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 13:09VGKBrayden McNabb: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:57VGKBrayden McNabb: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 18:26NSHNick Bonino: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Karlsson won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson12:12
xG 0.43–0.39 (52%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Bonino – Smith – Hartman9:40
xG 0.29–0.28 (51%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Turris – Sissons – Fiala10:38
xG 0.71–0.95 (43%)attempts 11–11goals 1–1
- Boyle – Jarnkrok – Grimaldi8:58
xG 0.28–0.57 (33%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Subban – Josi2:10
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Weber11:14
xG 0.28–0.67 (30%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Subban – Ekholm15:29
xG 0.84–1.24 (40%)attempts 18–17goals 1–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Eakin – Lindberg9:29
xG 1.49–0.19 (89%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Stastny – Pirri – Tuch8:22
xG 0.80–0.21 (79%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault13:17
xG 0.78–0.44 (64%)attempts 17–10goals 0–1
- Reaves – Carrier – Bellemare8:49
xG 0.22–0.47 (32%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Theodore13:53
xG 2.05–0.43 (83%)attempts 22–11goals 3–0
- Merrill – Miller14:40
xG 0.77–0.51 (60%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Engelland – Schmidt17:24
xG 0.73–0.77 (49%)attempts 17–21goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).