Wed, Feb 20, 2019·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Chicago Blackhawks 5, Detroit Red Wings 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 37 | 15 | 05 | 13 | 520 |
| DET | 115 | 05 | 312 | 03 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:39CHIArtem AnisimovUnassisted · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 6:37DETDylan LarkinAssists: Anthony Mantha, Filip Hronek · Snap, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 12:04CHIBrandon SaadAssists: Dylan Sikura, Cam Ward · Snap, 0.10 xG2–1
- P1 16:51CHIAlex DeBrincatAssists: Dylan Strome, Erik Gustafsson · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–1
- P2 1:17CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Erik Gustafsson · Snap, 0.09 xG4–1
- P3 4:19DETDylan LarkinAssists: Trevor Daley, Anthony Mantha · Snap, 0.20 xG4–2
- P3 5:23DETAndreas AthanasiouPPAssists: Anthony Mantha, Dylan Larkin · Deflected, 0.12 xG4–3
- P3 18:34DETAndreas AthanasiouAssists: Anthony Mantha, Mike Green · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–4
- OT 2:42CHIPatrick KaneGWGAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Jonathan Toews · Snap, 0.09 xG5–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 18:27CHIArtem Anisimov: Holding2 min
- P2 11:38CHIGustav Forsling: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:05DETMichael Rasmussen: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:46CHIErik Gustafsson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 6:36CHIPatrick Kane: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestToews – Kane – Caggiula3:40
xG 0.24–0.01 (95%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Kruger – Hayden6:08
xG 0.20–0.01 (96%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Saad – Sikura4:41
xG 0.25–0.08 (76%)attempts 5–3goals 2–0
- Anisimov – Kruger – Sikura2:26
xG 0.09–0.13 (42%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Murphy – Dahlstrom11:09
xG 0.45–0.48 (48%)attempts 5–8goals 1–1
- Murphy – Koekkoek5:54
xG 0.17–0.23 (43%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Keith – Gustafsson19:31
xG 0.40–0.61 (40%)attempts 13–11goals 2–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Mantha – Larkin14:23
xG 1.44–0.20 (88%)attempts 21–6goals 2–1
- Nielsen – Helm – Glendening2:57
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Vanek – Helm2:49
xG 0.10–0.09 (52%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Glendening – Athanasiou3:01
xG 0.08–0.07 (52%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – DeKeyser18:26
xG 0.74–0.28 (73%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Daley – Hronek13:54
xG 0.89–0.46 (66%)attempts 9–9goals 2–1
- Kronwall – Green14:08
xG 0.27–0.51 (34%)attempts 9–9goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).