Thu, Feb 21, 2019·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Buffalo Sabres 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 2 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 117 | 06 | 06 | 01 | 0 | 130 |
| TBL | 015 | 115 | 07 | 03 | 2 | 240 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:13BUFRasmus DahlinAssists: Zach Bogosian, Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P2 11:10TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Tyler Johnson · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. TBL Steven Stamkos scored
- 2. BUF Jack Eichel stopped
- 3. TBL Brayden Point stopped
- 4. BUF Vladimir Sobotka stopped
- 5. TBL Nikita Kucherov scored
Penalties (10)
- P1 11:26TBLJ.T. Miller: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 12:13BUFJohan Larsson: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:58BUFZach Bogosian: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 6:55TBLErik Cernak: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:46BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:43TBLBrayden Point: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:43BUFJeff Skinner: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:43TBLBrayden Point: Holding2 min
- OT 3:34TBLNikita Kucherov: Roughing2 min
- OT 3:34BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Mittelstadt won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Eichel – Rodrigues10:52
xG 0.70–0.48 (59%)attempts 14–13goals 1–1
- Sobotka – Thompson – Smith5:43
xG 0.04–0.19 (18%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Pominville – Larsson – Girgensons8:50
xG 0.13–0.35 (27%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Sheary – Reinhart – Mittelstadt8:19
xG 0.11–0.52 (17%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Bogosian – Dahlin12:19
xG 0.71–0.70 (51%)attempts 17–15goals 1–1
- Hunwick – Beaulieu6:41
xG 0.15–0.20 (43%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- McCabe – Ristolainen16:51
xG 0.26–0.56 (31%)attempts 6–17goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Kucherov – Point12:57
xG 0.88–0.16 (84%)attempts 23–8goals 1–0
- Killorn – Gourde – Cirelli7:57
xG 0.46–0.04 (92%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Palat – Miller9:52
xG 0.36–0.20 (65%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Paquette – Erne – Joseph6:57
xG 0.18–0.55 (24%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Sergachev13:03
xG 0.59–0.33 (64%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Stralman – Hedman15:38
xG 0.57–0.32 (64%)attempts 18–13goals 1–0
- McDonagh – Cernak12:11
xG 0.49–0.48 (51%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).