Sun, Feb 24, 2019·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Calgary Flames 2, Ottawa Senators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 113 | 010 | 112 | 235 |
| OTT | 011 | 17 | 05 | 123 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:07CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Sam Bennett · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 15:38OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Thomas Chabot · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–1
- P3 19:19CGYAustin CzarnikGWGAssists: Michael Frolik, Mark Jankowski · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 11:06OTTCody Goloubef: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:20OTTFilip Chlapik: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:02CGYTravis Hamonic: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:11CGYGarnet Hathaway: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:46CGYSam Bennett: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:02OTTRudolfs Balcers: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tkachuk won the faceoff against Tkachuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHathaway – Mangiapane – Ryan6:46
xG 0.48–0.19 (72%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Monahan12:17
xG 0.23–0.12 (67%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Backlund – Bennett – Tkachuk9:08
xG 0.35–0.27 (57%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Frolik – Jankowski – Czarnik8:41
xG 0.27–0.33 (44%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Hanifin16:11
xG 0.85–0.52 (62%)attempts 22–11goals 0–0
- Andersson – Kylington11:36
xG 0.39–0.14 (74%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Giordano – Brodie14:44
xG 0.33–0.46 (41%)attempts 18–15goals 1–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestRyan – Duclair – White2:27
xG 0.27–0.06 (81%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Ryan – Duclair – Brown6:25
xG 0.33–0.21 (62%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Chlapik – Balcers – Batherson2:32
xG 0.04–0.05 (44%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Tierney – White – Tkachuk5:57
xG 0.23–0.32 (42%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Chabot14:33
xG 0.84–0.55 (60%)attempts 19–18goals 1–1
- Chabot – Wolanin2:36
xG 0.03–0.19 (15%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Harpur – Jaros13:58
xG 0.07–0.27 (21%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).