Thu, Feb 28, 2019·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Vancouver Canucks 2, Arizona Coyotes 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 112 | 010 | 117 | 239 |
| ARI | 26 | 212 | 16 | 524 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:58ARIBrad RichardsonAssists: Lawson Crouse, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 14:01VANTanner PearsonAssists: Ryan Spooner · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 14:45ARIBrad RichardsonAssists: Richard Panik, Vinnie Hinostroza · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 11:49ARIBrad RichardsonGWGAssists: Richard Panik, Vinnie Hinostroza · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–3
- P2 17:25ARIAlex GalchenyukPPAssists: Clayton Keller, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–4
- P3 6:29VANAntoine RousselAssists: Alex Biega, Ben Hutton · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–4
- P3 8:03ARIBrad RichardsonAssists: Vinnie Hinostroza, Richard Panik · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:24VANJay Beagle: Interference2 min
- P1 3:24ARIIlya Lyubushkin: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:49ARIBrad Richardson: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:59ARIConor Garland: Kneeing2 min
- P2 15:44VANBen Hutton: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 16:51VANAntoine Roussel: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:48VANAdam Gaudette: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 17:18ARIAlex Goligoski: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Richardson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestLeivo – Pearson – Pettersson8:09
xG 0.46–0.26 (64%)attempts 19–7goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Beagle – Motte7:58
xG 0.29–0.12 (70%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Spooner – Boeser – Gaudette2:59
xG 0.21–0.08 (73%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Roussel – Horvat – Goldobin3:46
xG 0.20–0.14 (59%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Sautner11:45
xG 0.48–0.15 (76%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Edler – Biega15:02
xG 0.68–0.78 (46%)attempts 24–15goals 1–2
- Hutton – Stecher14:33
xG 0.54–0.66 (45%)attempts 22–15goals 0–1
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestRichardson – Panik – Hinostroza11:03
xG 0.89–0.35 (72%)attempts 18–11goals 3–0
- Cousins – Galchenyuk – Keller6:29
xG 0.23–0.10 (69%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
- Stepan – Archibald – Crouse5:45
xG 0.22–0.24 (47%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
- Kempe – Dvorak – Garland5:38
xG 0.07–0.24 (22%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOesterle – Lyubushkin8:25
xG 0.35–0.27 (56%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Chychrun13:12
xG 0.52–0.46 (53%)attempts 16–22goals 1–0
- Hjalmarsson – Ekman-Larsson13:36
xG 0.61–0.60 (50%)attempts 9–17goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).