Fri, Mar 1, 2019·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Buffalo Sabres 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 120 | 213 | 08 | 03 | 344 |
| BUF | 27 | 09 | 111 | 13 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:09BUFJack EichelAssists: Sam Reinhart · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 4:05PITNick BjugstadAssists: Juuso Riikola, Dominik Simon · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 12:53BUFConor ShearyPPAssists: Kyle Okposo, Brandon Montour · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–2
- P2 17:18PITPatric HornqvistPPAssists: Justin Schultz, Sidney Crosby · Deflected, 0.20 xG2–2
- P2 18:21PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Justin Schultz · Snap, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 17:28BUFBrandon MontourAssists: Evan Rodrigues, Conor Sheary · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–3
- OT 4:11BUFConor ShearyGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:02PITGarrett Wilson: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 17:02PITEvgeni Malkin: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:02BUFBrandon Montour: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:59BUFMatt Hunwick: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:37BUFMatt Hunwick: Interference2 min
- P2 16:25BUFScott Wilson: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 11:47PITPatric Hornqvist: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Kessel – Aston-Reese12:58
xG 1.02–0.34 (75%)attempts 15–3goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – McCann – Simon10:46
xG 0.67–0.15 (82%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Crosby – Hornqvist – Guentzel12:54
xG 0.54–0.65 (45%)attempts 16–13goals 0–1
- Cullen – Wilson – Blueger5:36
xG 0.07–0.61 (11%)attempts 1–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Pettersson17:04
xG 1.21–0.45 (73%)attempts 20–6goals 0–1
- Johnson – Schultz18:14
xG 0.83–0.77 (52%)attempts 17–22goals 0–0
- Trotman – Riikola9:16
xG 0.52–0.61 (46%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Reinhart – Eichel14:42
xG 0.79–0.57 (58%)attempts 17–13goals 1–0
- Okposo – Sheary – Rodrigues10:36
xG 0.29–0.24 (55%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Pominville – Larsson – Girgensons4:24
xG 0.20–0.31 (39%)attempts 2–8goals 0–1
- Wilson – Thompson – Mittelstadt9:40
xG 0.64–1.15 (36%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMontour – Dahlin4:19
xG 0.13–0.08 (63%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – Dahlin2:44
xG 0.10–0.12 (44%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Dahlin8:32
xG 0.15–0.20 (43%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).