Sat, Mar 2, 2019·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Detroit Red Wings 1, Arizona Coyotes 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 08 | 18 | 07 | 123 |
| ARI | 217 | 014 | 113 | 344 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:58ARIJosh ArchibaldAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Niklas Hjalmarsson · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 15:40ARIOliver Ekman-LarssonGWGAssists: Vinnie Hinostroza, Richard Panik · Slap, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 7:35DETDylan LarkinPPAssists: Niklas Kronwall, Anthony Mantha · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–2
- P3 4:37ARIVinnie HinostrozaAssists: Jakob Chychrun, Richard Panik · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–3
Penalties (6)
- P2 5:36ARIMario Kempe: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 14:22DETDylan Larkin: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:53DETAnthony Mantha: Delaying game bench2 min
- P3 7:40ARIJakob Chychrun: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:40DETAnthony Mantha: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:21DETDarren Helm: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richardson won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Nielsen – Helm – Rasmussen7:19
xG 0.12–0.15 (45%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Glendening – Athanasiou – Zadina7:45
xG 0.28–0.40 (41%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Mantha – Larkin12:03
xG 0.22–1.33 (14%)attempts 7–16goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Green – DeKeyser2:25
xG 0.02–0.19 (8%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Ericsson – Bowey8:23
xG 0.38–0.60 (38%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
- DeKeyser – Hronek13:24
xG 0.33–0.84 (28%)attempts 20–16goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestCousins – Galchenyuk – Keller11:04
xG 1.04–0.11 (91%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Archibald – Dvorak – Crouse11:24
xG 1.04–0.17 (86%)attempts 20–7goals 1–0
- Richardson – Panik – Hinostroza9:55
xG 0.80–0.14 (85%)attempts 13–3goals 2–0
- Kempe – Fischer – Garland8:53
xG 0.48–0.25 (66%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Chychrun14:06
xG 1.10–0.43 (72%)attempts 21–15goals 2–0
- Goligoski – Oesterle2:13
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Hjalmarsson – Chychrun2:17
xG 0.31–0.01 (97%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).