Tue, Mar 12, 2019·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Arizona Coyotes 3, St. Louis Blues 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 05 | 17 | 210 | 322 |
| STL | 012 | 010 | 118 | 140 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:05ARIRichard PanikUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P3 0:23ARIVinnie HinostrozaGWGAssists: Brad Richardson · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
- P3 18:49STLJaden SchwartzPPAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 19:38ARIOliver Ekman-LarssonENAssists: Darcy Kuemper · Wrist, 0.49 xG3–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:30ARIDarcy Kuemper: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 10:41STLBrayden Schenn: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:34ARIIlya Lyubushkin: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:34STLPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:24ARINick Cousins: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richardson won the faceoff against Sundqvist
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestKempe – Galchenyuk – Fischer8:42
xG 0.56–0.43 (57%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Archibald – Cousins – Crouse11:09
xG 0.08–0.58 (12%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
- Richardson – Grabner – Hinostroza11:59
xG 0.10–0.61 (14%)attempts 7–18goals 1–0
- Panik – Dvorak – Keller11:18
xG 0.14–0.87 (13%)attempts 4–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Goligoski – Oesterle4:23
xG 0.14–0.19 (42%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Demers – Ekman-Larsson2:50
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Demers – Lyubushkin4:41
xG 0.01–0.19 (7%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Sundqvist – Sanford11:16
xG 0.87–0.06 (94%)attempts 21–5goals 0–1
- O'Reilly – Schenn – Thomas12:22
xG 0.49–0.18 (73%)attempts 16–4goals 0–0
- MacEachern – Barbashev – Blais6:01
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Maroon – Bozak – Schwartz8:31
xG 0.55–0.57 (49%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Parayko13:31
xG 0.84–0.27 (76%)attempts 17–9goals 0–1
- Bortuzzo – Dunn9:27
xG 0.47–0.00 (100%)attempts 12–1goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – Edmundson6:10
xG 0.31–0.09 (77%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).