Thu, Mar 14, 2019·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Anaheim Ducks 1, Arizona Coyotes 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 011 | 111 | 015 | 137 |
| ARI | 29 | 29 | 26 | 624 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:25ARIOliver Ekman-LarssonSHAssists: Brad Richardson, Michael Grabner · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 19:10ARIJason DemersGWGAssists: Christian Dvorak, Clayton Keller · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 0:58ANAJakob SilfverbergAssists: Devin Shore, Rickard Rakell · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 4:15ARIVinnie HinostrozaPPAssists: Alex Goligoski, Darcy Kuemper · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–3
- P2 17:49ARIVinnie HinostrozaPPAssists: Jason Demers, Alex Goligoski · Slap, 0.09 xG1–4
- P3 19:10ARIVinnie HinostrozaAssists: Christian Fischer · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–5
- P3 19:59ARIMario KempeAssists: Christian Fischer · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–6
Penalties (11)
- P1 9:43ANAHampus Lindholm: Interference2 min
- P1 16:05ARIDarcy Kuemper: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 2:34ANAMax Jones: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:35ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:01ANACarter Rowney: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:57ANAAdam Henrique: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 2:12ARIJordan Oesterle: Cross checking2 min
- P3 5:37ANAKorbinian Holzer: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:53ARIAlex Goligoski: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:34ANAKorbinian Holzer: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:34ARIAlex Galchenyuk: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kempe won the faceoff against Grant
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGrant – Rowney – Jones9:40
xG 0.91–0.31 (75%)attempts 15–6goals 0–1
- Perry – Henrique – Terry9:24
xG 0.36–0.07 (83%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Ritchie – Sprong9:40
xG 0.38–0.16 (70%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Silfverberg – Rakell – Shore8:40
xG 0.43–0.36 (54%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Larsson14:25
xG 1.11–0.24 (82%)attempts 23–6goals 0–0
- Holzer – Megna8:17
xG 0.44–0.33 (57%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Manson – Lindholm14:40
xG 0.45–0.46 (50%)attempts 14–12goals 0–2
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- Richardson – Grabner – Hinostroza8:40
xG 0.28–0.26 (52%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Kempe – Galchenyuk – Fischer5:43
xG 0.06–0.12 (34%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Panik – Dvorak – Keller8:21
xG 0.04–0.41 (8%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
- Archibald – Cousins – Crouse8:29
xG 0.18–0.79 (18%)attempts 3–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Goligoski – Demers11:41
xG 0.53–0.70 (43%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
- Oesterle – Lyubushkin14:03
xG 0.43–0.70 (38%)attempts 9–19goals 1–0
- Hjalmarsson – Ekman-Larsson9:58
xG 0.00–0.45 (0%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).