Sat, Mar 23, 2019·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Ottawa Senators 4, Edmonton Oilers 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 212 | 013 | 18 | 12 | 435 |
| EDM | 17 | 111 | 111 | 00 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:37OTTBrady TkachukPPAssists: Christian Wolanin, Dylan DeMelo · Wrap-around, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 8:12EDMAlex ChiassonAssists: Darnell Nurse · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–1
- P1 15:28OTTBobby RyanPPAssists: Thomas Chabot, Colin White · Deflected, 0.22 xG2–1
- P2 2:54EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Zack Kassian · Snap, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 7:37OTTBrian GibbonsAssists: Magnus Paajarvi, Oscar Lindberg · Deflected, 0.15 xG3–2
- P3 8:33EDMColby CaveAssists: Joseph Gambardella, Sam Gagner · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–3
- OT 2:09OTTBrady TkachukGWGAssists: Rudolfs Balcers, Craig Anderson · Snap, 0.19 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:51EDMMilan Lucic: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 13:34EDMDarnell Nurse: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:06OTTBen Harpur: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:06EDMAlex Chiasson: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:00OTTChristian Jaros: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00White won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPageau – Veronneau – Tkachuk10:21
xG 0.44–0.15 (75%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Boedker – Tierney – Duclair7:47
xG 0.34–0.25 (58%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Paajarvi – Lindberg – Gibbons9:40
xG 0.61–0.55 (53%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Ryan – White – Balcers12:48
xG 0.46–0.64 (42%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Chabot19:05
xG 0.64–0.51 (55%)attempts 19–11goals 0–1
- Harpur – Wolanin14:11
xG 0.54–0.50 (52%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Harpur – Chabot2:17
xG 0.02–0.22 (10%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestLucic – Chiasson – Nugent-Hopkins10:35
xG 0.55–0.39 (58%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
- Gagner – Rieder – Cave6:48
xG 0.40–0.25 (61%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Cave – Currie – Gambardella3:23
xG 0.16–0.02 (87%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Kassian – Draisaitl – McDavid15:29
xG 0.67–0.58 (54%)attempts 19–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Benning13:08
xG 0.71–0.52 (58%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Russell – Nurse16:54
xG 0.73–0.73 (50%)attempts 14–23goals 2–0
- Larsson – Klefbom16:13
xG 0.38–0.50 (43%)attempts 13–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).