Thu, Mar 28, 2019·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Detroit Red Wings 5, Buffalo Sabres 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 117 | 15 | 211 | 11 | 534 |
| BUF | 015 | 211 | 211 | 02 | 439 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:02DETTyler BertuzziPPAssists: Anthony Mantha, Niklas Kronwall · Tip-in, 0.18 xG1–0
- P2 1:00DETFilip HronekAssists: Anthony Mantha, Tyler Bertuzzi · Slap, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 6:12BUFKyle OkposoPPAssists: Casey Mittelstadt, Brandon Montour · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 17:16BUFMarco ScandellaAssists: Zemgus Girgensons, Johan Larsson · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 6:44DETDylan LarkinAssists: Madison Bowey, Anthony Mantha · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 13:04DETDylan LarkinAssists: Filip Hronek · Slap, 0.03 xG4–2
- P3 15:01BUFCasey MittelstadtAssists: Jeff Skinner, Jason Pominville · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–3
- P3 15:42BUFJack EichelAssists: Victor Olofsson, Sam Reinhart · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–4
- OT 2:18DETTyler BertuzziGWGAssists: Danny DeKeyser, Taro Hirose · Slap, 0.14 xG5–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:03DETDanny DeKeyser: Holding2 min
- P1 7:01BUFJohan Larsson: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:26BUFRasmus Dahlin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 12:36BUFLawrence Pilut: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:13DETLuke Witkowski: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 14:44DETDarren Helm: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Helm – Kuffner6:06
xG 0.19–0.10 (67%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Glendening – Athanasiou – Hirose9:00
xG 0.15–0.11 (57%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Puempel – Athanasiou – Ehn2:12
xG 0.09–0.07 (58%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Helm – Puempel – Athanasiou2:01
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Witkowski7:59
xG 0.31–0.19 (62%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Kronwall – Hronek6:33
xG 0.17–0.10 (63%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Ericsson – McIlrath2:02
xG 0.04–0.08 (34%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestReinhart – Olofsson – Eichel12:36
xG 0.68–0.38 (64%)attempts 15–9goals 1–1
- Pominville – Skinner – Mittelstadt12:11
xG 0.39–0.16 (71%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Okposo – Larsson – Girgensons7:58
xG 0.17–0.18 (49%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Sobotka – Sheary – Nylander7:26
xG 0.17–0.42 (29%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Nelson13:40
xG 0.33–0.18 (66%)attempts 11–7goals 2–0
- Montour – Pilut18:24
xG 0.48–0.39 (55%)attempts 13–16goals 1–0
- Borgen – Dahlin11:43
xG 0.56–0.65 (47%)attempts 14–11goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).