Sat, Mar 30, 2019·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Ottawa Senators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 018 | 012 | 214 | 244 |
| OTT | 07 | 29 | 26 | 422 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:24OTTAnthony DuclairAssists: Oscar Lindberg, Magnus Paajarvi · Slap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 14:43OTTMagnus PaajarviAssists: Anthony Duclair · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P3 5:02TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: Mitch Marner, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 5:29TORConnor BrownAssists: Ron Hainsey · Snap, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 6:41OTTCody CeciGWGAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Colin White · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 18:47OTTAnthony DuclairENAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Colin White · Snap, 0.74 xG2–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 19:30OTTChristian Jaros: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 3:03TORKasperi Kapanen: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:32OTTBrian Gibbons: Interference2 min
- P3 4:04OTTBrady Tkachuk: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 11:13TORAndreas Johnsson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:53TORAndreas Johnsson: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:32TORNazem Kadri: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:32OTTJean-Gabriel Pageau: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smith won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestJohnsson – Nylander – Matthews12:27
xG 0.66–0.32 (67%)attempts 22–6goals 0–1
- Tavares – Hyman – Marner14:39
xG 0.65–0.39 (62%)attempts 26–9goals 0–0
- Marleau – Kadri – Kapanen12:06
xG 0.40–0.49 (45%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
- Ennis – Brown – Gauthier3:58
xG 0.04–0.15 (20%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Rielly15:13
xG 1.03–0.42 (71%)attempts 23–11goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Zaitsev12:46
xG 0.46–0.14 (76%)attempts 18–6goals 0–0
- Marincin – Dermott9:24
xG 0.54–0.41 (56%)attempts 14–9goals 0–2
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestRyan – Smith – Pageau3:12
xG 0.26–0.02 (94%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Paajarvi – Lindberg – Duclair7:00
xG 0.26–0.24 (53%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Ryan – Tierney – Balcers6:58
xG 0.06–0.31 (16%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
- Gibbons – White – Tkachuk10:19
xG 0.19–0.59 (24%)attempts 6–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Ceci – Wolanin15:00
xG 0.66–0.74 (47%)attempts 13–21goals 1–0
- DeMelo – Chabot16:14
xG 0.32–0.73 (31%)attempts 10–18goals 1–1
- Harpur – Jaros13:01
xG 0.29–0.89 (25%)attempts 9–26goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).