Sat, Apr 6, 2019·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Winnipeg Jets 4, Arizona Coyotes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 16 | 315 | 011 | 432 |
| ARI | 16 | 07 | 18 | 221 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:21ARIAlex GalchenyukPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 15:18WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Kyle Connor · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 2:35WPGJacob TroubaAssists: Par Lindholm, Adam Lowry · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–1
- P2 10:05WPGKyle ConnorGWGAssists: Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.24 xG3–1
- P2 15:21WPGNikolaj EhlersPPAssists: Tyler Myers · Wrist, 0.19 xG4–1
- P3 3:29ARIBrad RichardsonAssists: Vinnie Hinostroza, Michael Grabner · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:57WPGMathieu Perreault: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 7:16WPGPatrik Laine: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:03ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Interference2 min
- P2 13:23ARIJason Demers: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 19:40WPGDustin Byfuglien: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:40WPGDustin Byfuglien: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:40ARIVinnie Hinostroza: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richardson won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLowry – Roslovic – Lindholm7:36
xG 0.84–0.02 (98%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Perreault – Hayes – Ehlers12:22
xG 0.56–0.16 (78%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Connor14:04
xG 0.59–0.42 (58%)attempts 17–8goals 2–1
- Little – Copp – Laine12:33
xG 0.30–0.26 (54%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBeaulieu – Trouba16:15
xG 1.07–0.21 (84%)attempts 19–7goals 1–0
- Byfuglien – Chiarot17:13
xG 0.55–0.22 (71%)attempts 19–12goals 1–0
- Myers – Kulikov16:22
xG 0.43–0.51 (46%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestRichardson – Grabner – Hinostroza13:37
xG 0.42–0.33 (56%)attempts 7–14goals 1–0
- Dvorak – Fischer – Keller10:57
xG 0.12–0.18 (41%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Stepan – Archibald – Crouse11:50
xG 0.14–0.41 (26%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
- Cousins – Galchenyuk – Garland10:26
xG 0.19–0.65 (22%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Goligoski – Hjalmarsson16:25
xG 0.26–0.31 (45%)attempts 4–15goals 0–0
- Demers – Ekman-Larsson20:18
xG 0.33–0.93 (26%)attempts 16–21goals 0–0
- Connauton – Oesterle13:19
xG 0.20–0.88 (18%)attempts 6–15goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).