Wed, Oct 2, 2019·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Ottawa Senators 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 112 | 13 | 111 | 326 |
| TOR | 014 | 417 | 111 | 542 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:25OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Connor Brown, Colin White · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 2:20TORFrederik GauthierAssists: Tyson Barrie, Dmytro Timashov · Wrist, 0.43 xG1–1
- P2 4:42TORTrevor MooreAssists: Ilya Mikheyev, Rasmus Sandin · Slap, 0.54 xG1–2
- P2 5:51OTTScott SabourinAssists: Filip Chlapik, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
- P2 8:02TORAuston MatthewsAssists: William Nylander, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–3
- P2 14:50TORAuston MatthewsPPGWGAssists: Mitch Marner, John Tavares · Slap, 0.09 xG2–4
- P3 9:43TORIlya MikheyevAssists: Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–5
- P3 17:45OTTBobby RyanAssists: Chris Tierney, Mark Borowiecki · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:56OTTTyler Ennis: Tripping2 min
- P1 5:53OTTColin White: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:05OTTConnor Brown: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 10:01TORAlexander Kerfoot: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:40OTTBrady Tkachuk: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 15:24TORTyson Barrie: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:16OTTFilip Chlapik: Boarding2 min
- P3 5:35TORDmytro Timashov: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against White
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPageau – Sabourin – Chlapik3:40
xG 0.15–0.03 (83%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
- Ryan – Tierney – Duclair7:13
xG 0.31–0.22 (59%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Brown – White – Tkachuk9:35
xG 0.25–0.34 (42%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Anisimov – Ennis – Batherson8:22
xG 0.09–1.47 (6%)attempts 2–17goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestBorowiecki – DeMelo11:54
xG 0.68–0.57 (55%)attempts 11–15goals 2–1
- Hainsey – Brannstrom11:03
xG 0.46–0.88 (34%)attempts 9–13goals 1–1
- Chabot – Zaitsev17:56
xG 0.49–1.60 (24%)attempts 17–29goals 0–2
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKerfoot – Moore – Mikheyev9:26
xG 0.98–0.17 (85%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Johnsson – Nylander – Matthews11:19
xG 0.91–0.36 (72%)attempts 23–10goals 1–1
- Shore – Gauthier – Timashov6:29
xG 0.47–0.21 (69%)attempts 6–7goals 1–1
- Tavares – Kapanen – Marner10:03
xG 0.22–0.55 (29%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMarincin – Sandin7:22
xG 0.72–0.02 (98%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Muzzin – Barrie13:57
xG 1.28–0.81 (61%)attempts 21–15goals 2–1
- Muzzin – Ceci2:56
xG 0.03–0.02 (64%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).