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Ice Lab

Wed, Oct 2, 2019·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto

Ottawa Senators 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 83% of the time.

TOR winsOTT wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:25Goal by Tkachuk (Brown, White)+19 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Tavares, Rielly, Ceci, Kapanen, Marner · OTT Hainsey, Brown, White, Brannstrom, Tkachuk

  3. P1 0:56Ennis: Tripping (2 min)6v5

    On ice: TOR Muzzin, Barrie, Kerfoot, Matthews, Moore, Mikheyev · OTT Anisimov, Ennis, Chabot, Zaitsev, Batherson

  4. P1 1:31Shot by Rielly, saved by Anderson5v4
  5. P1 3:23Shot by DeMelo, saved by Andersen
  6. P1 3:56Shot by Rielly, saved by Anderson
  7. P1 4:47Shot by Barrie, saved by Anderson
  8. P1 4:53Shot by Barrie, saved by Anderson
  9. P1 5:31Shot by Ceci, saved by Anderson
  10. P1 5:52Shot by Johnsson, saved by Anderson
  11. P1 5:53White: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Rielly, Ceci, Johnsson, Nylander, Matthews · OTT Borowiecki, DeMelo, Brown, White, Tkachuk

  12. P1 6:02Shot by Marner, saved by Anderson5v4
  13. P1 7:11Shot by Nylander, saved by Anderson5v4
  14. P1 7:30Shot by Barrie, saved by Anderson5v4
  15. P1 7:39Shot by Nylander, saved by Anderson5v4
  16. P1 7:59Shot by White, saved by Andersen
  17. P1 8:05Shot by Chabot, saved by Andersen
  18. P1 8:05Brown: Interference goalkeeper (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Muzzin, Barrie, Shore, Timashov, Mikheyev · OTT Ryan, Brown, White, Chabot, Zaitsev

  19. P1 8:15Shot by Matthews, saved by Anderson5v4
  20. P1 9:08Shot by Duclair, saved by Andersen5v4
  21. P1 10:06Shot by Ennis, saved by Andersen
  22. P1 10:12Shot by Zaitsev, saved by Andersen
  23. P1 12:22Shot by Duclair, saved by Andersen
  24. P1 12:58Shot by Rielly, saved by Anderson
  25. P1 13:27Shot by Tkachuk, saved by Andersen
  26. P1 15:49Shot by Rielly, saved by Anderson
  27. P1 16:11Shot by Tavares, saved by Anderson
  28. P1 18:38Shot by Zaitsev, saved by Andersen
  29. P1 18:46Shot by Brannstrom, saved by Andersen
  30. P1 19:37Shot by Ryan, saved by Andersen
  31. P1 0:00Period end
  32. P2 0:00Period start
  33. P2 1:06Shot by Nylander, saved by Anderson
  34. P2 1:41Shot by Zaitsev, saved by Andersen
  35. P2 2:20Shot by Barrie, saved by Anderson
  36. P2 2:20Goal by Gauthier (Barrie, Timashov)+22 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Muzzin, Barrie, Shore, Gauthier, Timashov · OTT Anisimov, Ennis, Chabot, Zaitsev, Batherson

  37. P2 2:46Shot by Sandin, saved by Anderson
  38. P2 4:33Shot by Barrie, saved by Anderson
  39. P2 4:37Shot by Marincin, saved by Anderson
  40. P2 4:42Shot by Sandin, saved by Anderson
  41. P2 4:42Goal by Moore (Mikheyev, Sandin)+17 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Marincin, Kerfoot, Moore, Sandin, Mikheyev · OTT Hainsey, Anisimov, Ennis, Brannstrom, Batherson

  42. P2 5:51Goal by Sabourin (Chlapik, Pageau)+18 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Muzzin, Marincin, Shore, Gauthier, Timashov · OTT Borowiecki, DeMelo, Pageau, Sabourin, Chlapik

  43. P2 6:01Shot by Rielly, saved by Anderson
  44. P2 8:02Goal by Matthews (Nylander, Rielly)+18 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Rielly, Ceci, Johnsson, Nylander, Matthews · OTT Anisimov, Chabot, Zaitsev, Batherson, Tkachuk

  45. P2 10:01Kerfoot: Cross checking (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Rielly, Ceci, Kerfoot, Moore, Mikheyev · OTT Borowiecki, DeMelo, Brown, White, Tkachuk

  46. P2 13:06Shot by Ryan, saved by Andersen
  47. P2 13:26Shot by Tavares, saved by Anderson
  48. P2 14:40Tkachuk: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Rielly, Johnsson, Nylander, Matthews, Sandin · OTT Pageau, Brown, Chabot, Zaitsev, Tkachuk

  49. P2 14:45Shot by Matthews, saved by Anderson5v4
  50. P2 14:50Goal by Matthews (Marner, Tavares)5v4+15 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Tavares, Rielly, Johnsson, Marner, Matthews · OTT Hainsey, Pageau, Brown, Zaitsev

  51. P2 15:24Barrie: Slashing (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Muzzin, Barrie, Kerfoot, Moore, Mikheyev · OTT Anisimov, Ennis, Borowiecki, DeMelo, Batherson

  52. P2 18:05Shot by Matthews, saved by Anderson
  53. P2 18:18Shot by Matthews, saved by Anderson
  54. P2 18:53Shot by Marner, saved by Anderson
  55. P2 19:08Shot by Kapanen, saved by Anderson
  56. P2 0:00Period end
  57. P3 0:00Period start
  58. P3 0:59Shot by Muzzin, saved by Anderson
  59. P3 1:32Shot by Johnsson, saved by Anderson
  60. P3 2:00Shot by Moore, saved by Anderson
  61. P3 2:15Shot by Barrie, saved by Anderson
  62. P3 3:16Chlapik: Boarding (2 min)6v5

    On ice: TOR Muzzin, Marincin, Shore, Gauthier, Timashov, Matthews · OTT Pageau, Sabourin, Chabot, Chlapik, Zaitsev

  63. P3 3:42Shot by Johnsson, saved by Anderson5v4
  64. P3 3:51Shot by Matthews, saved by Anderson5v4
  65. P3 5:14Shot by Borowiecki, saved by Andersen5v4
  66. P3 5:35Timashov: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Muzzin, Ceci, Gauthier, Timashov, Mikheyev · OTT Hainsey, Brown, White, Zaitsev, Tkachuk

  67. P3 7:38Shot by Anisimov, saved by Andersen
  68. P3 8:21Shot by Matthews, saved by Anderson
  69. P3 9:43Goal by Mikheyev (Barrie)+4 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Muzzin, Tavares, Barrie, Moore, Mikheyev · OTT Anisimov, Ennis, Borowiecki, DeMelo, Batherson

  70. P3 10:32Shot by Zaitsev, saved by Andersen
  71. P3 13:42Shot by Moore, saved by Anderson
  72. P3 13:55Shot by Sabourin, saved by Andersen
  73. P3 14:26Shot by Chabot, saved by Andersen
  74. P3 14:58Shot by Marincin, saved by Anderson
  75. P3 15:52Shot by Sabourin, saved by Andersen
  76. P3 16:26Shot by Marner, saved by Anderson
  77. P3 17:45Shot by Tierney, saved by Andersen
  78. P3 17:45Goal by Ryan (Tierney, Borowiecki)0 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Muzzin, Barrie, Johnsson, Nylander, Matthews · OTT Ryan, Borowiecki, DeMelo, Tierney, Duclair

  79. P3 18:22Shot by Chabot, saved by Andersen5v6
  80. P3 18:44Shot by Duclair, saved by Andersen5v6
  81. P3 19:37Shot by Chabot, saved by Andersen5v6
  82. P3 0:00Period end
  83. P3 0:00Final