Fri, Oct 4, 2019·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 110 | 19 | 210 | 429 |
| CBJ | 09 | 111 | 09 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:04TORMitch MarnerPPAssists: John Tavares, Morgan Rielly · Snap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 10:35TORCody CeciGWGAssists: Morgan Rielly, William Nylander · Snap, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 14:11CBJCam AtkinsonPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 2:16TORMitch MarnerAssists: John Tavares, Jake Muzzin · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–1
- P3 14:04TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: Morgan Rielly, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–1
Penalties (12)
- P1 4:11TORTyson Barrie: Holding2 min
- P1 11:56CBJDavid Savard: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 12:45TORAndreas Johnsson: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:52CBJMarkus Nutivaara: Holding2 min
- P1 19:07TORAndreas Johnsson: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:07TORMorgan Rielly: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 15:44CBJScott Harrington: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:01TORAndreas Johnsson: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:01CBJJosh Anderson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 6:32CBJBoone Jenner: Interference2 min
- P3 12:27CBJAlexandre Texier: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 17:53TORFrederik Gauthier: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jenner won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Petan – Gauthier5:01
xG 0.63–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Johnsson – Nylander – Matthews8:13
xG 0.29–0.14 (68%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Tavares – Kapanen – Marner9:03
xG 0.14–0.27 (35%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Gauthier – Moore – Mikheyev3:22
xG 0.00–0.23 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Sandin3:57
xG 0.59–0.38 (61%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Barrie11:22
xG 0.24–0.22 (52%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Rielly – Ceci11:14
xG 0.24–0.22 (52%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Jenner – Anderson9:15
xG 0.65–0.17 (79%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
- Nyquist – Bjorkstrand – Wennberg5:33
xG 0.27–0.01 (95%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Bjorkstrand – Wennberg – Texier3:09
xG 0.13–0.05 (73%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Atkinson – Dubois – Texier6:07
xG 0.16–0.11 (60%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Werenski13:25
xG 0.79–0.28 (74%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Murray – Jones12:57
xG 0.28–0.28 (50%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Harrington – Nutivaara12:23
xG 0.27–0.68 (28%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).