Sun, Oct 6, 2019·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Carolina Hurricanes 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 93% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 311 | 00 | 02 | 00 | 313 |
| CAR | 117 | 116 | 18 | 13 | 444 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:14CARBrett PesceAssists: Brock McGinn, Andrei Svechnikov · Snap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 2:22TBLTyler JohnsonAssists: Victor Hedman · Slap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 9:53TBLKevin ShattenkirkPPAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Yanni Gourde · Snap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P1 17:44TBLSteven StamkosUnassisted · Snap, 0.08 xG3–1
- P2 13:49CARErik HaulaPPAssists: Ryan Dzingel, Dougie Hamilton · Backhand, 0.19 xG3–2
- P3 12:48CARDougie HamiltonPPAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Andrei Svechnikov · Slap, 0.04 xG3–3
- OT 1:53CARJaccob SlavinGWGAssists: Jordan Staal · Snap, 0.16 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 9:48CARJoel Edmundson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 15:03TBLAnthony Cirelli: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:55CARDougie Hamilton: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:31TBLVictor Hedman: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:40TBLSteven Stamkos: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:50CARTeuvo Teravainen: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:33CARWarren Foegele: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:26TBLBraydon Coburn: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:15TBLKevin Shattenkirk: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smith won the faceoff against Wallmark
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Verhaeghe – Joseph8:48
xG 0.47–0.39 (54%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
- Killorn – Gourde – Cirelli13:13
xG 0.24–0.43 (36%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Palat – Kucherov13:52
xG 0.28–1.32 (18%)attempts 7–21goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Hedman13:43
xG 0.41–0.12 (78%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Coburn – Sergachev11:54
xG 0.44–0.71 (38%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Cernak12:42
xG 0.19–0.63 (23%)attempts 6–18goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestNiederreiter – Teravainen – Aho12:14
xG 1.12–0.35 (76%)attempts 25–5goals 0–0
- Martinook – Foegele – Wallmark8:17
xG 0.62–0.02 (96%)attempts 11–1goals 0–0
- Staal – McGinn – Svechnikov11:25
xG 0.65–0.39 (63%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Haula – Dzingel – Necas8:47
xG 0.46–0.21 (69%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Fleury8:50
xG 1.05–0.26 (80%)attempts 18–5goals 0–1
- Edmundson – Pesce14:04
xG 0.89–0.41 (68%)attempts 24–8goals 1–0
- Hamilton – Slavin16:23
xG 0.77–0.32 (71%)attempts 18–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 93% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).