Sun, Oct 6, 2019·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Dallas Stars 3, Detroit Red Wings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 28 | 06 | 18 | 322 |
| DET | 08 | 211 | 214 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:57DALRoope HintzAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Anton Khudobin · Snap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 16:49DALTyler SeguinAssists: Jamie Oleksiak, Taylor Fedun · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–0
- P2 0:48DETAnthony ManthaPPAssists: Taro Hirose, Dennis Cholowski · Slap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 9:43DETAnthony ManthaAssists: Danny DeKeyser, Filip Hronek · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–2
- P3 0:15DETAnthony ManthaAssists: Dylan Larkin, Tyler Bertuzzi · Backhand, 0.28 xG2–3
- P3 0:48DALRoope HintzAssists: Mattias Janmark, Andrej Sekera · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–3
- P3 19:06DETAnthony ManthaGWGAssists: Filip Hronek, Dylan Larkin · Slap, 0.08 xG3–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 7:27DALAlexander Radulov: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:44DALJohn Klingberg: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 2:15DETPatrik Nemeth: Interference2 min
- P2 4:54DALAndrew Cogliano: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:04DALJamie Benn: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:07DALAlexander Radulov: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 16:53DETMike Green: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:36DALJoe Pavelski: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:14DALJustin Dowling: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 9:34DALAndrew Cogliano: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Faksa won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Janmark – Hintz7:55
xG 0.58–0.05 (92%)attempts 8–2goals 2–0
- Cogliano – Caamano – Gardner4:29
xG 0.20–0.06 (77%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Radulov – Seguin – Gurianov5:15
xG 0.13–0.20 (39%)attempts 1–4goals 1–0
- Radulov – Benn – Seguin4:07
xG 0.04–0.21 (17%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Klingberg7:05
xG 0.30–0.02 (93%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Klingberg – Oleksiak4:23
xG 0.31–0.05 (85%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Fedun – Oleksiak5:40
xG 0.38–0.20 (65%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Mantha – Larkin9:14
xG 0.78–0.43 (64%)attempts 10–7goals 3–2
- Nielsen – Erne – Ehn5:28
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Abdelkader – Helm – de la Rose5:46
xG 0.04–0.22 (15%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Filppula – Glendening – Hirose4:30
xG 0.08–0.29 (21%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – Nemeth12:34
xG 1.16–0.50 (70%)attempts 17–5goals 1–1
- DeKeyser – Hronek8:42
xG 0.29–0.15 (66%)attempts 11–2goals 1–1
- Nemeth – Hronek3:41
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).