Wed, Oct 9, 2019·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Montréal Canadiens 4, Buffalo Sabres 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 210 | 09 | 28 | 00 | 427 |
| BUF | 112 | 215 | 111 | 11 | 539 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:04BUFVictor OlofssonPPAssists: Jack Eichel, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 14:06MTLJoel ArmiaSHAssists: Nate Thompson · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–1
- P1 19:39MTLJoel ArmiaPPAssists: Nick Suzuki · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–1
- P2 4:46BUFJack EichelPPAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Sam Reinhart · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 14:13BUFJack EichelUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 0:47BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Marcus Johansson · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–4
- P3 1:44MTLJesperi KotkaniemiAssists: Joel Armia, Jonathan Drouin · Snap, 0.11 xG3–4
- P3 12:54MTLBen ChiarotAssists: Artturi Lehkonen, Mike Reilly · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–4
- OT 1:30BUFMarcus JohanssonGWGAssists: Colin Miller, Jack Eichel · Slap, 0.10 xG4–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:59MTLTomas Tatar: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 13:26MTLJesperi Kotkaniemi: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:21BUFRasmus Dahlin: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 3:58MTLTomas Tatar: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 7:52BUFVladimir Sobotka: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:49MTLJordan Weal: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 4:20BUFMarcus Johansson: Holding2 min
- P3 19:25MTLPhillip Danault: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Gallagher – Danault7:17
xG 0.45–0.12 (79%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Thompson – Byron – Weal2:39
xG 0.18–0.02 (88%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Armia – Drouin – Kotkaniemi9:14
xG 0.29–0.20 (59%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Thompson – Byron – Suzuki5:08
xG 0.14–0.08 (63%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Chiarot15:15
xG 0.72–0.30 (71%)attempts 18–12goals 0–1
- Weber – Mete13:59
xG 0.63–0.45 (58%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
- Reilly – Folin11:54
xG 0.23–0.46 (33%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Larsson – Girgensons9:16
xG 0.46–0.25 (65%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
- Sobotka – Johansson – Skinner11:53
xG 0.50–0.50 (50%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Reinhart – Olofsson – Eichel11:18
xG 0.14–0.32 (31%)attempts 6–7goals 1–1
- Vesey – Rodrigues – Mittelstadt5:40
xG 0.05–0.28 (16%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Jokiharju14:10
xG 0.76–0.36 (68%)attempts 20–9goals 1–0
- McCabe – Ristolainen16:55
xG 0.43–0.51 (46%)attempts 12–15goals 1–1
- Miller – Dahlin13:00
xG 0.11–0.85 (11%)attempts 5–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).