Thu, Oct 10, 2019·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Vegas Golden Knights 1, Arizona Coyotes 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 115 | 010 | 013 | 138 |
| ARI | 214 | 210 | 05 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:00ARIConor GarlandAssists: Carl Soderberg · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 19:21ARINick SchmaltzGWGAssists: Christian Dvorak, Barrett Hayton · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–2
- P1 19:55VGKShea TheodoreAssists: Brayden McNabb, Cody Glass · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 2:03ARIConor GarlandAssists: Jordan Oesterle · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–3
- P2 18:28ARINiklas HjalmarssonAssists: Clayton Keller, Carl Soderberg · Slap, 0.02 xG1–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:46ARIBarrett Hayton: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:42VGKJon Merrill: Interference2 min
- P1 11:41ARIChristian Dvorak: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:55ARIConor Garland: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 14:06ARIConor Garland: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 14:10VGKCody Glass: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Glass won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestReaves – Carrier – Nosek6:27
xG 0.28–0.05 (84%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault9:26
xG 0.50–0.44 (53%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
- Stastny – Pacioretty – Stone2:52
xG 0.11–0.06 (65%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Reaves – Pirri – Nosek2:19
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Hague8:30
xG 0.45–0.23 (66%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
- Engelland – Merrill11:00
xG 0.51–0.36 (59%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- McNabb – Theodore16:21
xG 0.26–0.26 (50%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestSchmaltz – Dvorak – Hayton7:41
xG 0.75–0.40 (65%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Kessel – Stepan – Keller11:56
xG 0.32–0.29 (52%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Soderberg – Fischer – Garland8:32
xG 0.26–0.25 (51%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Richardson – Grabner – Hinostroza8:03
xG 0.01–0.01 (60%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Hjalmarsson15:23
xG 0.30–0.16 (66%)attempts 9–12goals 2–0
- Demers – Ekman-Larsson13:25
xG 0.71–0.62 (53%)attempts 15–9goals 1–1
- Oesterle – Chychrun14:40
xG 0.51–0.47 (52%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).