Sat, Oct 12, 2019·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Toronto Maple Leafs 5, Detroit Red Wings 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 113 | 111 | 317 | 541 |
| DET | 19 | 08 | 110 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:44DETJacob de la RoseAssists: Patrik Nemeth, Justin Abdelkader · Backhand, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 9:57TORNicholas ShoreAssists: Dmytro Timashov · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 19:30TORIlya MikheyevAssists: Kasperi Kapanen · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 9:11TORAlexander KerfootGWGAssists: Ilya Mikheyev, Rasmus Sandin · Backhand, 0.29 xG3–1
- P3 9:35DETDarren HelmAssists: Justin Abdelkader, Jacob de la Rose · Snap, 0.16 xG3–2
- P3 13:34TORJake MuzzinAssists: Dmytro Timashov · Snap, 0.08 xG4–2
- P3 17:47TORTrevor MooreENAssists: John Tavares · Wrist, 0.55 xG5–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 12:36DETAndreas Athanasiou: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 15:48DETValtteri Filppula: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:50TORTyson Barrie: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:58DETDanny DeKeyser: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00de la Rose won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestShore – Gauthier – Timashov7:59
xG 1.19–0.36 (77%)attempts 14–7goals 2–0
- Tavares – Kapanen – Marner11:28
xG 0.58–0.38 (60%)attempts 18–7goals 0–1
- Kerfoot – Moore – Mikheyev9:41
xG 0.42–0.31 (58%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Johnsson – Nylander – Matthews13:51
xG 0.39–0.43 (47%)attempts 18–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Barrie13:33
xG 0.49–0.25 (67%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Ceci – Sandin2:13
xG 0.52–0.28 (65%)attempts 5–4goals 1–1
- Rielly – Ceci14:32
xG 0.72–0.49 (59%)attempts 17–15goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestAbdelkader – Helm – de la Rose9:14
xG 0.52–0.12 (81%)attempts 8–10goals 2–0
- Bertuzzi – Mantha – Larkin13:15
xG 0.65–0.30 (69%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Filppula – Erne – Ehn3:24
xG 0.10–0.07 (58%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Glendening – Athanasiou – Erne3:03
xG 0.01–0.19 (6%)attempts 1–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Green – Cholowski5:33
xG 0.31–0.26 (54%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Green – Nemeth15:34
xG 0.48–0.44 (52%)attempts 9–21goals 1–0
- DeKeyser – Hronek10:04
xG 0.45–0.54 (45%)attempts 11–13goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).