Sat, Oct 12, 2019·NYCB Live/Nassau Coliseum, Uniondale
Florida Panthers 2, New York Islanders 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 112 | 010 | 114 | 01 | 0 | 237 |
| NYI | 09 | 211 | 05 | 03 | 1 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:34FLADenis MalginAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, MacKenzie Weegar · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 5:40NYIAnders LeeAssists: Mathew Barzal, Devon Toews · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 17:31NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Jordan Eberle, Adam Pelech · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 13:58FLAEvgenii DadonovAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Anton Stralman · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. NYI Brock Nelson scored
- 2. FLA Aleksander Barkov stopped
- 3. NYI Mathew Barzal stopped
- 4. FLA Vincent Trocheck stopped
- 5. NYI Josh Bailey stopped
- 6. FLA Jonathan Huberdeau stopped
Penalties (6)
- P2 1:46FLAMacKenzie Weegar: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:58NYIRoss Johnston: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 7:33NYIMichael Dal Colle: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:44NYIRoss Johnston: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:44FLAJoshua Brown: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:48NYILeo Komarov: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nelson won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestSceviour – Hunt – Acciari6:47
xG 0.68–0.23 (75%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Vatrano – Acciari – Malgin2:07
xG 0.43–0.02 (95%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Connolly – Trocheck – Hawryluk5:08
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov8:24
xG 0.33–0.15 (69%)attempts 10–3goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Matheson16:28
xG 1.20–0.60 (67%)attempts 23–16goals 1–1
- Yandle – Brown9:29
xG 0.36–0.34 (51%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Weegar – Ekblad18:20
xG 0.42–0.49 (46%)attempts 15–14goals 1–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Lee – Barzal15:19
xG 0.79–0.60 (57%)attempts 15–17goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Nelson – Beauvillier11:19
xG 0.44–0.27 (62%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Brassard – Bailey – Dal Colle11:43
xG 0.17–0.21 (45%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Komarov – Kuhnhackl – Johnston5:52
xG 0.12–0.56 (17%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Toews13:47
xG 0.64–0.26 (71%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
- Pelech – Pulock19:13
xG 0.74–0.83 (47%)attempts 15–22goals 1–1
- Boychuk – Leddy15:00
xG 0.21–0.92 (18%)attempts 10–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).