Thu, Oct 17, 2019·TD Garden, Boston
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Boston Bruins 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 116 | 113 | 14 | 03 | 1 | 436 |
| BOS | 111 | 110 | 111 | 05 | 0 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:34BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Torey Krug · Slap, 0.26 xG0–1
- P1 19:59TBLBrayden PointAssists: Yanni Gourde, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 7:26BOSPatrice BergeronPPAssists: David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 10:32TBLMathieu JosephAssists: Alex Killorn · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–2
- P3 15:13TBLKevin ShattenkirkAssists: Steven Stamkos, Brayden Point · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 16:55BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: Brad Marchand, Torey Krug · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. TBL Victor Hedman stopped
- 2. BOS Charlie Coyle stopped
- 3. TBL Brayden Point stopped
- 4. BOS David Pastrnak stopped
- 5. TBL Nikita Kucherov stopped
- 6. BOS Brad Marchand stopped
- 7. TBL Steven Stamkos scored
- 8. BOS Jake DeBrusk stopped
Penalties (9)
- P1 9:27TBLMikhail Sergachev: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 11:04BOSSean Kuraly: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:09BOSPatrice Bergeron: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:15TBLCarter Verhaeghe: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:23TBLYanni Gourde: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 17:56TBLErik Cernak: Interference2 min
- P3 8:25BOSMatt Grzelcyk: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:08TBLAnthony Cirelli: Tripping2 min · PPG
- OT 5:00BOSBrad Marchand: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Johnson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Kucherov – Point13:44
xG 0.88–0.27 (77%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
- Johnson – Palat – Verhaeghe3:48
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Palat – Joseph – Cirelli2:34
xG 0.19–0.05 (80%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Johnson – Palat – Gourde6:49
xG 0.17–0.17 (50%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Sergachev6:34
xG 0.42–0.17 (71%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – McDonagh12:08
xG 0.29–0.11 (73%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Hedman2:55
xG 0.17–0.10 (62%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak11:43
xG 0.40–0.29 (58%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Coyle – Heinen – DeBrusk2:49
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Coyle – Ritchie – DeBrusk4:29
xG 0.29–0.40 (42%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
- Heinen – Kuhlman – Lindholm4:04
xG 0.03–0.32 (9%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – Carlo3:01
xG 0.23–0.03 (88%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Krug – Clifton5:20
xG 0.06–0.15 (28%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Grzelcyk – Clifton6:43
xG 0.07–0.17 (28%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).