Sat, Oct 19, 2019·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Colorado Avalanche 6, Tampa Bay Lightning 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 16 | 310 | 28 | 624 |
| TBL | 112 | 016 | 118 | 246 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:09COLTyson JostAssists: Samuel Girard, Colin Wilson · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 17:35TBLYanni GourdeAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Kevin Shattenkirk · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 3:17COLTyson JostAssists: J.T. Compher, Colin Wilson · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 5:48COLGabriel LandeskogGWGAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Ian Cole · Tip-in, 0.06 xG3–1
- P2 6:06COLTyson JostAssists: J.T. Compher, Colin Wilson · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–1
- P3 6:30COLNazem KadriAssists: Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–1
- P3 11:48TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Alex Killorn · Tip-in, 0.07 xG5–2
- P3 14:27COLMikko RantanenUnassisted · Backhand, 0.05 xG6–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 4:33TBLBraydon Coburn: Slashing2 min
- P1 7:41COLNikita Zadorov: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:27TBLErik Cernak: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:27COLMatt Calvert: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:00COLGabriel Landeskog: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:00TBLAnthony Cirelli: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:52TBLLuke Witkowski: Cross checking2 min
- P3 3:19COLGabriel Landeskog: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:46TBLOndrej Palat: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:46COLNazem Kadri: Embellishment2 min
- P3 5:06COLRyan Graves: Penalty shot slash on breakaway0 min
- P3 19:43TBLVictor Hedman: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:43COLMatt Calvert: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen15:18
xG 0.52–0.35 (60%)attempts 15–14goals 2–1
- Calvert – Nieto – Bellemare9:07
xG 0.46–0.34 (58%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Wilson – Compher – Jost8:15
xG 0.34–0.22 (60%)attempts 8–7goals 3–0
- Kadri – Donskoi – Burakovsky11:59
xG 0.14–0.61 (19%)attempts 5–18goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Johnson – Girard14:40
xG 0.41–0.40 (51%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Cole – Girard2:18
xG 0.05–0.06 (42%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Zadorov – Makar12:40
xG 0.44–0.66 (40%)attempts 9–17goals 1–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Palat – Gourde5:31
xG 0.52–0.22 (70%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Johnson – Gourde – Point5:45
xG 0.19–0.16 (55%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Point5:51
xG 0.15–0.20 (42%)attempts 5–5goals 0–2
- Killorn – Joseph – Cirelli12:29
xG 0.21–0.31 (40%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Sergachev7:19
xG 0.45–0.13 (77%)attempts 15–2goals 0–0
- Hedman – Sergachev2:40
xG 0.27–0.07 (79%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Hedman3:39
xG 0.18–0.02 (90%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).