Sat, Oct 19, 2019·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Ottawa Senators 2, Arizona Coyotes 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 05 | 010 | 221 | 236 |
| ARI | 28 | 17 | 212 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:09ARIKyle CapobiancoAssists: Vinnie Hinostroza, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 8:32ARIOliver Ekman-LarssonAssists: Clayton Keller, Derek Stepan · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–2
- P2 9:40ARIConor GarlandGWGAssists: Brad Richardson, Nick Schmaltz · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–3
- P3 1:18ARICarl SoderbergPPAssists: Conor Garland, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–4
- P3 2:58OTTVladislav NamestnikovSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–4
- P3 4:08OTTChris TierneyPPAssists: Thomas Chabot, Craig Anderson · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–4
- P3 19:05ARILawson CrouseENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.63 xG2–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:49OTTJordan Szwarz: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:30OTTColin White: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:46OTTAnthony Duclair: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 15:20ARIPhil Kessel: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 19:35OTTConnor Brown: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 3:33ARIIlya Lyubushkin: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00White won the faceoff against Soderberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Ryan – Pageau – Duclair2:32
xG 0.03–0.03 (51%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Pageau – Brown – Tkachuk7:45
xG 0.29–0.30 (49%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Duclair – White6:00
xG 0.31–0.35 (47%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Ryan – Ennis – Tierney6:22
xG 0.20–0.25 (44%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Borowiecki – DeMelo10:10
xG 0.54–0.53 (50%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
- DeMelo – Chabot3:21
xG 0.08–0.18 (32%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
- Hainsey – Brannstrom10:34
xG 0.16–0.53 (23%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestKessel – Stepan – Keller9:14
xG 1.04–0.30 (78%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Schmaltz – Dvorak – Garland9:06
xG 0.46–0.12 (80%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Richardson – Grabner – Hinostroza9:55
xG 0.40–0.36 (53%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Soderberg – Fischer – Crouse7:26
xG 0.11–0.21 (35%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCapobianco – Lyubushkin13:36
xG 0.79–0.29 (73%)attempts 18–14goals 1–0
- Demers – Ekman-Larsson13:54
xG 0.84–0.46 (65%)attempts 14–16goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Chychrun13:46
xG 0.23–0.32 (42%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).