Sun, Oct 20, 2019·Madison Square Garden, New York
Vancouver Canucks 3, New York Rangers 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 320 | 017 | 06 | 343 |
| NYR | 013 | 110 | 117 | 240 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:01VANBo HorvatPPAssists: Elias Pettersson, Quinn Hughes · Snap, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 13:34VANBrock BoeserAssists: Elias Pettersson · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P1 16:53VANJay BeagleSHGWGAssists: Chris Tanev · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–0
- P2 14:58NYRJesper FastAssists: Jacob Trouba, Ryan Strome · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 5:31NYRArtemi PanarinAssists: Jesper Fast, Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:24NYRLibor Hajek: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 7:02NYRBrady Skjei: Interference2 min
- P1 9:43VANTim Schaller: Holding2 min
- P1 15:12VANTyler Myers: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:09NYRMarc Staal: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:49VANJay Beagle: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBeagle – Schaller – Motte8:52
xG 1.23–0.35 (78%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Miller – Boeser – Pettersson9:00
xG 0.40–0.39 (51%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Sutter – Ferland – Leivo5:46
xG 0.22–0.44 (34%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Pearson – Horvat – Virtanen10:27
xG 0.58–0.80 (42%)attempts 13–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Myers13:39
xG 1.74–0.79 (69%)attempts 25–14goals 0–0
- Benn – Stecher10:24
xG 0.94–0.66 (59%)attempts 18–7goals 1–0
- Benn – Tanev3:17
xG 0.12–0.07 (62%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestFast – Strome – Buchnevich6:22
xG 0.69–0.18 (79%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Lemieux – Howden – Kakko6:15
xG 0.71–0.50 (59%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Panarin11:14
xG 0.56–0.57 (50%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
- Haley – Buchnevich – Andersson2:22
xG 0.00–0.27 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Fox8:52
xG 0.80–0.39 (67%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Skjei – DeAngelo9:12
xG 1.16–1.01 (53%)attempts 21–13goals 1–0
- Trouba – Hajek9:07
xG 0.17–0.13 (58%)attempts 4–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).