Sun, Oct 27, 2019·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
San Jose Sharks 2, Ottawa Senators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 114 | 19 | 013 | 236 |
| OTT | 28 | 214 | 18 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:34OTTConnor BrownAssists: Nikita Zaitsev, Nick Paul · Snap, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 9:30SJSEvander KanePPAssists: Brent Burns, Logan Couture · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 15:27OTTNick PaulAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Chris Tierney · Snap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 10:59OTTNick PaulGWGAssists: Connor Brown · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–3
- P2 13:14SJSKevin LabancAssists: Brent Burns · Snap, 0.11 xG2–3
- P2 19:09OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Dylan DeMelo, Mark Borowiecki · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–4
- P3 16:36OTTAnthony DuclairAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Dylan DeMelo · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 8:02OTTMark Borowiecki: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 9:10OTTConnor Brown: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:17OTTBrady Tkachuk: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:57SJSBrenden Dillon: Interference2 min
- P1 18:06SJSTomas Hertl: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:09SJSKevin Labanc: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:12SJSTimo Meier: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 3:03OTTTyler Ennis: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:34OTTBrady Tkachuk: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 18:43OTTScott Sabourin: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tierney won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- Goodrow – Karlsson – Gregor5:12
xG 0.05–0.04 (53%)attempts 4–1goals 0–1
- Thornton – Sorensen – Gambrell9:38
xG 0.43–0.53 (45%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
- Kane – Hertl – Meier11:30
xG 0.40–0.50 (44%)attempts 17–10goals 0–2
- Marleau – Couture – Labanc10:36
xG 0.25–0.57 (30%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Dillon3:52
xG 0.10–0.01 (90%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Heed – Ferraro7:59
xG 0.46–0.38 (54%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Ferraro2:05
xG 0.07–0.03 (69%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestDuclair – Brown – Tkachuk8:06
xG 0.95–0.16 (86%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Pageau – Brown – Paul11:03
xG 0.40–0.24 (62%)attempts 9–14goals 2–0
- Sabourin – Chlapik – Beaudin4:37
xG 0.10–0.03 (75%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Ennis – Namestnikov – Tierney9:46
xG 0.38–0.39 (49%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Brannstrom5:33
xG 0.72–0.22 (77%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Chabot – Zaitsev18:02
xG 0.71–0.38 (65%)attempts 19–19goals 1–0
- Borowiecki – DeMelo11:45
xG 0.49–0.32 (61%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).