Mon, Oct 28, 2019·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Arizona Coyotes 3, Buffalo Sabres 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 113 | 115 | 015 | 01 | 1 | 344 |
| BUF | 211 | 09 | 06 | 00 | 0 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:31BUFJack EichelPPAssists: Jeff Skinner, Sam Reinhart · Slap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 11:16BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Marcus Johansson, Vladimir Sobotka · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P1 18:50ARIConor GarlandAssists: Barrett Hayton, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Snap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 16:32ARICarl SoderbergPPAssists: Conor Garland, Alex Goligoski · Deflected, 0.18 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. BUF Jack Eichel stopped
- 2. ARI Conor Garland stopped
- 3. BUF Sam Reinhart stopped
- 4. ARI Nick Schmaltz scored
- 5. BUF Casey Mittelstadt stopped
Penalties (4)
- P1 3:28ARILawson Crouse: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 15:03BUFCarter Hutton: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 17:04BUFRasmus Dahlin: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:47ARIVinnie Hinostroza: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Soderberg won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestSoderberg – Kessel – Crouse2:05
xG 0.55–0.07 (89%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Kessel – Dvorak – Keller7:29
xG 0.29–0.17 (63%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Soderberg – Fischer – Crouse10:26
xG 0.34–0.27 (56%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Hinostroza – Dvorak – Keller2:15
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDemers – Ekman-Larsson22:08
xG 1.41–0.72 (66%)attempts 27–13goals 1–1
- Ness – Lyubushkin9:42
xG 0.75–0.53 (59%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Chychrun20:10
xG 0.69–0.61 (53%)attempts 14–17goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Larsson – Girgensons11:13
xG 0.63–0.57 (53%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Sobotka – Johansson – Skinner11:49
xG 0.19–0.21 (47%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
- Reinhart – Olofsson – Eichel14:59
xG 0.85–1.05 (45%)attempts 21–16goals 0–0
- Sheary – Rodrigues – Mittelstadt8:35
xG 0.05–0.37 (11%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Jokiharju2:07
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Miller – Gilmour16:21
xG 0.88–0.94 (48%)attempts 14–19goals 0–0
- McCabe – Ristolainen16:18
xG 0.38–0.59 (39%)attempts 9–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).