Skip to content
Ice Lab

Mon, Nov 4, 2019·Madison Square Garden, New York

Ottawa Senators 6, New York Rangers 2

Away

Ottawa Senators

6

Final

Home

New York Rangers

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 85% of the time.

NYR winsOTT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
OTT21431016630
NYR111112011234

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 8:47NYRKaapo KakkoAssists: Adam Fox, Brendan Lemieux · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–1
  2. P1 14:56OTTJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Anthony Duclair · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–1
  3. P1 18:31OTTTyler EnnisPPAssists: Thomas Chabot, Vladislav Namestnikov · Snap, 0.21 xG2–1
  4. P2 4:12OTTRon HainseyGWGAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Mikkel Boedker · Snap, 0.19 xG3–1
  5. P2 11:43OTTJean-Gabriel PageauUnassisted · Wrist, 0.19 xG4–1
  6. P2 14:56OTTBrady TkachukUnassisted · Slap, 0.40 xG5–1
  7. P2 17:34NYRArtemi PanarinPPAssists: Kaapo Kakko, Tony DeAngelo · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–2
  8. P3 5:35OTTVladislav NamestnikovPPAssists: Connor Brown, Nick Paul · Wrist, 0.28 xG6–2
Penalties (19)
  1. P1 4:39OTTJean-Gabriel Pageau: Holding2 min
  2. P1 8:19OTTJ.C. Beaudin: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 8:19NYRTony DeAngelo: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 13:43OTTMark Borowiecki: Fighting5 min
  5. P1 13:43NYRBrendan Lemieux: Fighting5 min · PPG
  6. P1 17:17NYRRyan Strome: Roughing2 min
  7. P1 17:17NYRJacob Trouba: Cross checking2 min
  8. P1 17:17OTTAnthony Duclair: Roughing2 min
  9. P1 17:56NYRBrady Skjei: Tripping2 min
  10. P2 2:11NYRJacob Trouba: Hooking2 min
  11. P2 8:30NYRLibor Hajek: Interference2 min
  12. P2 12:00OTTVladislav Namestnikov: Tripping2 min
  13. P2 16:46OTTFilip Chlapik: Boarding2 min · PPG
  14. P3 4:12NYRArtemi Panarin: Hooking2 min · PPG
  15. P3 6:24NYRRyan Lindgren: Illegal check to head2 min
  16. P3 7:02OTTBrady Tkachuk: Interference2 min
  17. P3 13:04NYRBrendan Lemieux: Roughing2 min
  18. P3 13:04OTTBrady Tkachuk: Holding2 min
  19. P3 13:04NYRBrendan Lemieux: Misconduct10 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

OTT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NYR
45% to win55% to win
← OTT attackNYR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Paul won the faceoff against Chytil
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

OTTNYR
30Shots on goal34
5.5Expected goals2.8
51Shot attempts61
31Faceoffs won38
6Power plays4
22Penalty minutes36
24Hits18
18Blocked shots7
10Giveaways16
4Takeaways7

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.

Ottawa Senators

Forward lines

  1. bestRyan – Ennis – Tierney8:09

    xG 0.93–0.14 (87%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0

  2. Pageau – Duclair – Tkachuk8:51

    xG 0.99–0.45 (69%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0

  3. Boedker – Chlapik – Beaudin4:40

    xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0

  4. Namestnikov – Brown – Paul8:39

    xG 0.30–0.63 (32%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestHainsey – DeMelo2:32

    xG 0.78–0.01 (98%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0

  2. Hainsey – Brannstrom9:30

    xG 0.45–0.25 (64%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0

  3. Chabot – Zaitsev13:46

    xG 1.02–0.85 (54%)attempts 9–14goals 1–1

New York Rangers

Forward lines

  1. bestFast – Strome – Panarin6:40

    xG 0.66–0.13 (84%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0

  2. Lemieux – Howden – Kakko3:07

    xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0

  3. Strome – Panarin – Kakko4:44

    xG 0.02–0.07 (25%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0

  4. Fast – Lemieux – Howden2:04

    xG 0.25–0.61 (29%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. Trouba – Hajek9:57

    xG 0.57–0.60 (49%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0

  2. DeAngelo – Fox2:23

    xG 0.11–0.19 (36%)attempts 2–1goals 0–1

  3. Fox – Lindgren11:00

    xG 0.41–0.66 (38%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NYR 2.8 xGOTT 5.5 xG
0123456P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NYROTT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 43/100 · #654 of 1082 this seasonSwing 1.03 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 31% (winner's lowest chance)
OTT 100%5050%50NYR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +21 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 85% of the time.

NYR winsOTT wins

Simulated goal difference (NYR − OTT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).