Mon, Nov 4, 2019·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Arizona Coyotes 3, Edmonton Oilers 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 18 | 111 | 03 | 12 | 324 |
| EDM | 17 | 012 | 19 | 00 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:31EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.32 xG0–1
- P1 3:30ARIMichael GrabnerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 8:52ARICarl SoderbergUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 15:19EDMGaetan HaasAssists: Matt Benning, Kris Russell · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–2
- OT 2:01ARIDerek StepanGWGAssists: Nick Schmaltz · Snap, 0.11 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P2 0:22EDMZack Kassian: Holding2 min
- P2 12:30EDMConnor McDavid: Interference2 min
- P2 15:09ARIJordan Oesterle: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:52ARICarl Soderberg: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:24EDMJames Neal: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestSchmaltz – Garland – Keller8:12
xG 0.43–0.13 (77%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Fischer – Crouse7:37
xG 0.14–0.16 (46%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Grabner – Stepan – Hinostroza12:14
xG 0.12–0.41 (23%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Kessel – Dvorak – Hayton9:46
xG 0.18–0.61 (23%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestNess – Oesterle8:56
xG 0.22–0.16 (58%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Chychrun16:48
xG 0.12–0.52 (19%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
- Demers – Ekman-Larsson17:16
xG 0.57–1.23 (32%)attempts 16–13goals 1–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestGagner – Draisaitl – McDavid7:48
xG 0.60–0.07 (90%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Neal – Kassian – Nugent-Hopkins10:21
xG 0.50–0.43 (54%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Gagner – Khaira – Haas4:09
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Draisaitl – McDavid7:53
xG 0.42–0.38 (52%)attempts 5–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestNurse – Bear17:45
xG 1.29–0.21 (86%)attempts 24–9goals 0–1
- Klefbom – Bear2:56
xG 0.18–0.05 (80%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Russell – Klefbom5:05
xG 0.13–0.06 (70%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).