Thu, Nov 21, 2019·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Philadelphia Flyers 5, Carolina Hurricanes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 211 | 14 | 28 | 523 |
| CAR | 27 | 019 | 110 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:23CARSebastian AhoAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Brett Pesce · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 4:43CARTeuvo TeravainenPPAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Ryan Dzingel · Snap, 0.08 xG0–2
- P1 6:31PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Travis Konecny, Philippe Myers · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–2
- P1 13:14PHIIvan ProvorovPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Travis Konecny · Snap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 2:51PHIMorgan FrostSHAssists: Claude Giroux · Snap, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 3:24CARLucas WallmarkAssists: Brock McGinn, Joel Edmundson · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–3
- P3 11:16PHIClaude GirouxGWGAssists: Morgan Frost, Travis Konecny · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–3
- P3 19:54PHIKevin HayesENAssists: Michael Raffl · Wrist, 0.47 xG5–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:54PHIJakub Voracek: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 5:13CARRyan Dzingel: Delaying game bench face off violation2 min
- P1 6:19PHIJakub Voracek: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 12:19CARJoel Edmundson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 12:19CARJoel Edmundson: Misconduct10 min
- P2 0:57PHITravis Konecny: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:08PHIClaude Giroux: Interference2 min
- P2 19:41CARNino Niederreiter: Interference2 min
- P3 11:37PHIJoel Farabee: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Aho
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestVoracek – Couturier – Lindblom9:46
xG 0.30–0.06 (83%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Voracek – Raffl3:58
xG 0.18–0.19 (48%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Pitlick – Hayes – Farabee7:15
xG 0.13–0.24 (35%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Giroux – Konecny – Frost12:08
xG 0.56–1.50 (27%)attempts 6–19goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Provorov9:47
xG 0.56–0.29 (66%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Braun – Sanheim4:02
xG 0.22–0.10 (69%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Sanheim – Myers5:26
xG 0.17–0.08 (68%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestMartinook – McGinn – Wallmark4:54
xG 0.58–0.14 (81%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Martinook – McGinn – Luostarinen5:17
xG 0.28–0.10 (73%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Staal – Niederreiter – Necas4:27
xG 0.29–0.16 (64%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Aho – Svechnikov11:31
xG 0.56–0.59 (49%)attempts 13–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestEdmundson – Pesce10:37
xG 1.31–0.24 (84%)attempts 15–7goals 2–1
- Pesce – van Riemsdyk4:29
xG 0.31–0.02 (93%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Gardiner – van Riemsdyk7:48
xG 0.31–0.17 (65%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).