Sat, Nov 23, 2019·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Anaheim Ducks 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 113 | 115 | 010 | 238 |
| TBL | 18 | 35 | 214 | 627 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:08TBLBrayden PointAssists: Jan Rutta, Cory Conacher · Wrist, 0.37 xG0–1
- P1 18:00ANADerek GrantSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 5:28TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Anthony Cirelli, Alex Killorn · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 7:57ANARickard RakellAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Cam Fowler · Snap, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 12:39TBLBrayden PointPPGWGAssists: Victor Hedman, Andrei Vasilevskiy · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
- P2 14:25TBLPatrick MaroonAssists: Cedric Paquette, Mikhail Sergachev · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–4
- P3 6:20TBLAnthony CirelliPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.32 xG2–5
- P3 17:27TBLOndrej PalatPPAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Yanni Gourde · Backhand, 0.26 xG2–6
Penalties (14)
- P1 1:42TBLCory Conacher: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:12ANAErik Gudbranson: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:54TBLJan Rutta: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:22ANAHampus Lindholm: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:14TBLPatrick Maroon: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:38ANATroy Terry: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 15:29TBLErik Cernak: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:29TBLAnthony Cirelli: Cross checking2 min
- P3 15:29ANANick Ritchie: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 15:29ANANick Ritchie: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:29ANANick Ritchie: Misconduct10 min
- P3 15:29ANAKorbinian Holzer: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:00ANADerek Grant: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00TBLPatrick Maroon: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestHenrique – Silfverberg – Jones10:34
xG 0.35–0.10 (78%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Ritchie – Kase – Steel11:13
xG 0.31–0.20 (60%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Grant – Shore – Rowney5:30
xG 0.26–0.17 (60%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Rakell – Terry11:14
xG 0.36–0.88 (29%)attempts 10–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Lindholm13:14
xG 0.53–0.36 (59%)attempts 17–8goals 0–1
- Fowler – Larsson14:45
xG 0.45–0.43 (51%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Holzer – Guhle12:45
xG 0.33–0.85 (28%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Conacher – Point3:01
xG 0.40–0.05 (88%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Maroon – Gourde – Paquette9:33
xG 0.59–0.26 (69%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Killorn – Joseph – Cirelli10:10
xG 0.41–0.46 (47%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Johnson – Conacher – Palat2:25
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSergachev – Rutta5:31
xG 0.62–0.30 (67%)attempts 6–6goals 2–0
- Coburn – Sergachev6:33
xG 0.38–0.19 (67%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Shattenkirk – McDonagh2:18
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).