Mon, Nov 25, 2019·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Buffalo Sabres 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 111 | 116 | 03 | 230 |
| TBL | 19 | 25 | 215 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:13TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 3:40BUFSam ReinhartAssists: Victor Olofsson, Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 1:48BUFJimmy VeseyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–1
- P2 7:20TBLMikhail SergachevAssists: Ondrej Palat, Kevin Shattenkirk · Snap, 0.02 xG2–2
- P2 9:26TBLYanni GourdeGWGAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Patrick Maroon · Tip-in, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 8:17TBLCedric PaquetteAssists: Anthony Cirelli, Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 9:06TBLOndrej PalatAssists: Mathieu Joseph · Snap, 0.18 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 16:02BUFCarter Hutton: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:56TBLNikita Kucherov: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:34BUFJohan Larsson: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:08TBLYanni Gourde: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:07TBLAlex Killorn: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:00BUFJohan Larsson: Holding2 min
- P3 6:13BUFMarco Scandella: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:07TBLKevin Shattenkirk: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestReinhart – Olofsson – Eichel12:28
xG 0.98–0.17 (85%)attempts 10–4goals 1–1
- Larsson – Girgensons – Lazar6:05
xG 0.24–0.41 (37%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Skinner – Sheary – Mittelstadt9:20
xG 0.32–0.60 (35%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Ristolainen4:14
xG 0.85–0.12 (88%)attempts 6–3goals 1–1
- Bogosian – Miller4:39
xG 0.54–0.14 (79%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Montour – Dahlin4:43
xG 0.30–0.06 (84%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- Maroon – Gourde – Paquette7:14
xG 0.36–0.44 (45%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Palat – Kucherov – Point10:15
xG 0.23–0.38 (37%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
- Johnson – Verhaeghe – Cirelli2:00
xG 0.06–0.34 (15%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
- Killorn – Joseph – Cirelli8:29
xG 0.16–0.89 (15%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Hedman3:31
xG 0.12–0.03 (81%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Schenn3:11
xG 0.17–0.13 (56%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Schenn – Hedman4:01
xG 0.25–0.32 (44%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).