Wed, Nov 27, 2019·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Toronto Maple Leafs 6, Detroit Red Wings 0
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 316 | 326 | 012 | 654 |
| DET | 011 | 05 | 09 | 025 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:04TORTravis DermottGWGAssists: Ilya Mikheyev, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 2:24TORTyson BarrieAssists: Frederik Gauthier, Dmytro Timashov · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–0
- P1 9:48TORJohn TavaresAssists: Tyson Barrie, Ilya Mikheyev · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–0
- P2 1:03TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Morgan Rielly, Andreas Johnsson · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–0
- P2 3:34TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Andreas Johnsson, Morgan Rielly · Deflected, 0.25 xG5–0
- P2 7:07TORAndreas JohnssonPPAssists: Jason Spezza, Kasperi Kapanen · Backhand, 0.21 xG6–0
Penalties (1)
- P2 5:45DETFilip Hronek: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Hyman – Mikheyev14:27
xG 1.50–0.44 (77%)attempts 19–10goals 2–0
- Johnsson – Nylander – Matthews13:43
xG 1.73–0.68 (72%)attempts 22–13goals 2–0
- Gauthier – Engvall – Timashov11:57
xG 0.73–0.14 (83%)attempts 16–5goals 1–0
- Spezza – Petan – Kapanen14:13
xG 0.49–0.32 (61%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Ceci17:03
xG 1.92–0.34 (85%)attempts 31–9goals 2–0
- Muzzin – Holl16:19
xG 1.01–0.34 (75%)attempts 18–11goals 0–0
- Barrie – Rielly2:11
xG 0.10–0.00 (97%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Filppula – Helm – Zadina7:15
xG 0.19–0.17 (54%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Glendening – Athanasiou7:46
xG 0.20–0.19 (51%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Filppula – Athanasiou – Zadina4:56
xG 0.12–0.17 (43%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Helm – Glendening2:50
xG 0.12–0.29 (29%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestNemeth – Hronek14:57
xG 0.72–0.52 (58%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
- Bowey – Cholowski3:20
xG 0.05–0.02 (71%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
- Ericsson – Hronek4:51
xG 0.22–0.29 (43%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).