Sat, Nov 30, 2019·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Buffalo Sabres 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 08 | 011 | 19 | 02 | 130 |
| TOR | 011 | 116 | 013 | 13 | 243 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:30TORWilliam NylanderPPAssists: Auston Matthews, John Tavares · Backhand, 0.18 xG0–1
- P3 6:58BUFRasmus RistolainenAssists: Brandon Montour, Jack Eichel · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–1
- OT 1:45TORJohn TavaresGWGAssists: Kasperi Kapanen, Andreas Johnsson · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
Penalties (3)
- P1 18:07TORNic Petan: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:06BUFMarcus Johansson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 11:32TORJohn Tavares: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestReinhart – Olofsson – Eichel16:00
xG 0.66–0.30 (69%)attempts 24–16goals 1–0
- Johansson – Vesey – Mittelstadt11:09
xG 0.55–0.25 (68%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Larsson – Skinner – Sheary11:06
xG 0.38–0.24 (61%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Girgensons – Vesey – Asplund2:11
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – Scandella5:43
xG 0.45–0.10 (81%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – Montour5:47
xG 0.34–0.12 (74%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- McCabe – Montour7:24
xG 0.35–0.16 (69%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestGauthier – Engvall – Timashov6:08
xG 0.31–0.18 (63%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Johnsson – Nylander – Matthews13:13
xG 0.41–0.50 (45%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Petan – Kapanen10:27
xG 0.26–0.39 (40%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Tavares – Hyman – Mikheyev13:41
xG 0.21–0.65 (25%)attempts 13–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Holl14:27
xG 0.40–0.12 (77%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Barrie – Dermott15:22
xG 0.36–0.81 (31%)attempts 16–20goals 0–0
- Rielly – Ceci17:32
xG 0.37–0.82 (31%)attempts 19–24goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).