Sat, Dec 7, 2019·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Pittsburgh Penguins 5, Detroit Red Wings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 212 | 19 | 27 | 528 |
| DET | 07 | 113 | 28 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:37PITJake GuentzelAssists: Kris Letang, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.40 xG1–0
- P1 17:24PITChad RuhwedelAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Jake Guentzel · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–0
- P2 6:02DETRobby FabbriPPAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi, Dylan Larkin · Snap, 0.29 xG2–1
- P2 10:42PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Jake Guentzel, Chad Ruhwedel · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 1:38PITDominik KahunGWGAssists: John Marino, Marcus Pettersson · Snap, 0.14 xG4–1
- P3 13:00DETFilip HronekAssists: Darren Helm · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–2
- P3 16:56DETDylan LarkinPPAssists: Robby Fabbri, Dennis Cholowski · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–3
- P3 19:51PITJohn MarinoENAssists: Kris Letang, Brandon Tanev · Slap, 0.61 xG5–3
Penalties (5)
- P2 5:14PITAlex Galchenyuk: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 11:42PITKris Letang: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:34DETPatrik Nemeth: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:24PITBryan Rust: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 18:14DETBrendan Perlini: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Malkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Rust – Guentzel15:00
xG 1.29–0.42 (75%)attempts 19–14goals 3–1
- McCann – Tanev – Kahun12:16
xG 0.28–0.25 (53%)attempts 3–9goals 1–0
- Noesen – Galchenyuk – Lafferty7:07
xG 0.05–0.26 (17%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Blueger – Simon – Aston-Reese13:16
xG 0.23–0.51 (31%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Marino15:20
xG 0.74–0.44 (63%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Ruhwedel – Pettersson11:05
xG 0.61–0.41 (60%)attempts 11–8goals 2–1
- Letang – Schultz3:01
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Helm – Glendening8:16
xG 0.49–0.18 (73%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Erne – Perlini – Ehn5:54
xG 0.24–0.03 (90%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Filppula – Glendening – Athanasiou4:02
xG 0.18–0.02 (90%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Filppula – Athanasiou – Zadina5:27
xG 0.13–0.10 (56%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – Nemeth2:00
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Biega – McIlrath9:41
xG 0.34–0.14 (70%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Green – Cholowski14:39
xG 0.31–0.43 (41%)attempts 8–13goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).