Mon, Dec 9, 2019·Amalie Arena, Tampa
New York Islanders 5, Tampa Bay Lightning 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 08 | 28 | 38 | 524 |
| TBL | 09 | 112 | 011 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:44NYIRoss JohnstonAssists: Ryan Pulock · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 8:37NYIJosh BaileySHGWGAssists: Casey Cizikas · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–0
- P2 15:35TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Anthony Cirelli · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 7:31NYIBrock NelsonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–1
- P3 14:41NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Anders Lee, Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–1
- P3 16:05NYIAnders LeePPAssists: Josh Bailey, Mathew Barzal · Tip-in, 0.12 xG5–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:17NYIAdam Pelech: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:09NYICal Clutterbuck: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:09TBLCory Conacher: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:30NYIScott Mayfield: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:30TBLCedric Paquette: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:30NYIScott Mayfield: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:42TBLKevin Shattenkirk: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:43NYIMichael Dal Colle: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:13TBLMikhail Sergachev: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cirelli won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas7:21
xG 0.24–0.22 (52%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Bailey – Johnston – Barzal10:40
xG 0.41–0.40 (51%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Nelson – Dal Colle – Beauvillier7:24
xG 0.16–0.36 (31%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Brassard – Eberle – Lee6:45
xG 0.00–0.24 (0%)attempts 3–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Dobson2:53
xG 0.31–0.02 (95%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Mayfield – Dobson2:06
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Toews – Dobson2:13
xG 0.11–0.09 (54%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Kucherov – Point11:29
xG 0.51–0.08 (86%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Killorn – Stamkos – Cirelli8:19
xG 0.44–0.24 (65%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Killorn – Conacher – Cirelli3:39
xG 0.17–0.05 (78%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Maroon – Gourde – Paquette8:39
xG 0.11–0.13 (47%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Hedman10:17
xG 0.57–0.28 (67%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Schenn – Sergachev5:58
xG 0.30–0.16 (66%)attempts 8–3goals 0–1
- McDonagh – Sergachev2:00
xG 0.10–0.02 (83%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).