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Ice Lab

Mon, Dec 9, 2019·Amalie Arena, Tampa

New York Islanders 5, Tampa Bay Lightning 1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 56% of the time.

TBL winsNYI wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 1:38Shot by Pulock, saved by McElhinney
  3. P1 1:55Shot by Kucherov, saved by Varlamov
  4. P1 4:21Shot by Schenn, saved by Varlamov
  5. P1 5:04Shot by Beauvillier, saved by McElhinney
  6. P1 5:33Shot by Bailey, saved by McElhinney
  7. P1 6:01Shot by Pelech, saved by McElhinney
  8. P1 7:17Pelech: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Maroon, Schenn, Paquette, Stephens, Sergachev · NYI Brassard, Eberle, Lee, Pelech, Dobson

  9. P1 9:24Shot by Shattenkirk, saved by Varlamov
  10. P1 10:31Shot by Barzal, saved by McElhinney
  11. P1 11:37Shot by Nelson, saved by McElhinney
  12. P1 12:00Shot by Hedman, saved by Varlamov
  13. P1 13:40Shot by Boychuk, saved by McElhinney
  14. P1 14:00Shot by Stamkos, saved by Varlamov
  15. P1 14:03Shot by Gourde, saved by Varlamov
  16. P1 14:22Shot by Schenn, saved by Varlamov
  17. P1 17:08Shot by Conacher, saved by Varlamov
  18. P1 17:09Clutterbuck: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Killorn, Schenn, Hedman, Conacher, Cirelli · NYI Boychuk, Clutterbuck, Martin, Cizikas, Pulock

  19. P1 17:09Conacher: Roughing (2 min)5v4

    On ice: TBL Killorn, Schenn, Hedman, Conacher, Cirelli · NYI Boychuk, Clutterbuck, Martin, Cizikas, Pulock

  20. P1 17:26Shot by Hedman, saved by Varlamov4v4
  21. P1 18:21Shot by Lee, saved by McElhinney4v4
  22. P1 0:00Period end
  23. P2 0:00Period start
  24. P2 2:00Shot by Cizikas, saved by McElhinney
  25. P2 2:23Shot by Kucherov, saved by Varlamov
  26. P2 3:35Shot by Toews, saved by McElhinney
  27. P2 3:54Shot by Schenn, saved by Varlamov
  28. P2 6:38Shot by Conacher, saved by Varlamov
  29. P2 6:44Goal by Johnston (Pulock)+23 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Schenn, Conacher, Verhaeghe, Stephens, Sergachev · NYI Bailey, Pulock, Johnston, Barzal, Dobson

  30. P2 7:30Mayfield: Cross checking (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Schenn, Palat, Kucherov, Paquette, Sergachev · NYI Mayfield, Dal Colle, Toews, Barzal, Beauvillier

  31. P2 7:30Paquette: Roughing (2 min)5v4

    On ice: TBL Schenn, Palat, Kucherov, Paquette, Sergachev · NYI Mayfield, Dal Colle, Toews, Barzal, Beauvillier

  32. P2 7:30Mayfield: Roughing (2 min)4v4

    On ice: TBL Schenn, Palat, Kucherov, Paquette, Sergachev · NYI Mayfield, Dal Colle, Toews, Barzal, Beauvillier

  33. P2 8:00Shot by Hedman, saved by Varlamov5v4
  34. P2 8:14Shot by Point, saved by Varlamov5v4
  35. P2 8:37Goal by Bailey (Cizikas)5v4+15 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Killorn, Stamkos, Hedman, Kucherov, Point · NYI Boychuk, Bailey, Cizikas, Pulock

  36. P2 8:58Shot by Nelson, saved by McElhinney5v4
  37. P2 11:16Shot by Johnston, saved by McElhinney
  38. P2 11:42Shattenkirk: Slashing (2 min)5v4

    On ice: TBL Shattenkirk, Palat, Kucherov, Point, Sergachev · NYI Nelson, Dal Colle, Toews, Beauvillier, Dobson

  39. P2 12:10Shot by Lee, saved by McElhinney4v5
  40. P2 12:35Shot by Barzal, saved by McElhinney4v5
  41. P2 13:48Shot by Paquette, saved by Varlamov
  42. P2 14:50Shot by Point, saved by Varlamov
  43. P2 15:20Shot by Shattenkirk, saved by Varlamov
  44. P2 15:35Goal by Stamkos (Shattenkirk, Cirelli)+15 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Killorn, Shattenkirk, Stamkos, Hedman, Cirelli · NYI Brassard, Eberle, Lee, Mayfield, Pulock

  45. P2 17:01Shot by Palat, saved by Varlamov
  46. P2 18:10Shot by Stamkos, saved by Varlamov
  47. P2 18:17Shot by Killorn, saved by Varlamov
  48. P2 0:00Period end
  49. P3 0:00Period start
  50. P3 0:20Shot by Killorn, saved by Varlamov
  51. P3 0:22Shot by Stamkos, saved by Varlamov
  52. P3 0:43Dal Colle: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Killorn, Shattenkirk, Stamkos, Hedman, Cirelli · NYI Nelson, Mayfield, Dal Colle, Toews, Beauvillier

  53. P3 1:55Shot by Kucherov, saved by Varlamov5v4
  54. P3 2:43Shot by Maroon, saved by Varlamov5v4
  55. P3 2:49Shot by Verhaeghe, saved by Varlamov
  56. P3 5:47Shot by Kucherov, saved by Varlamov
  57. P3 6:05Shot by Martin, saved by McElhinney
  58. P3 6:22Shot by Boychuk, saved by McElhinney
  59. P3 7:29Shot by Nelson, saved by McElhinney
  60. P3 7:31Goal by Nelson, unassisted+14 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Schenn, Hedman, Conacher, Verhaeghe, Stephens · NYI Brassard, Nelson, Pelech, Beauvillier, Dobson

  61. P3 8:53Shot by Cernak, saved by Varlamov
  62. P3 9:45Shot by Stamkos, saved by Varlamov
  63. P3 10:28Shot by Paquette, saved by Varlamov
  64. P3 11:19Shot by Pelech, saved by McElhinney
  65. P3 11:38Shot by Pelech, saved by McElhinney
  66. P3 11:59Shot by Point, saved by Varlamov
  67. P3 14:41Goal by Nelson (Lee, Eberle)+1 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Maroon, Gourde, Paquette, Cernak, Sergachev · NYI Eberle, Lee, Nelson, Mayfield, Toews

  68. P3 15:13Sergachev: Cross checking (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Palat, Kucherov, Point, Cernak, Sergachev · NYI Clutterbuck, Martin, Cizikas, Mayfield, Toews

  69. P3 16:05Goal by Lee (Bailey, Barzal)4v50 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Killorn, McDonagh, Cernak, Cirelli · NYI Bailey, Eberle, Lee, Toews, Barzal

  70. P3 18:55Shot by Schenn, saved by Varlamov
  71. P3 0:00Period end
  72. P3 0:00Final