Tue, Dec 10, 2019·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
St. Louis Blues 2, Buffalo Sabres 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 19 | 010 | 111 | 230 |
| BUF | 111 | 110 | 312 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:18BUFSam ReinhartAssists: Victor Olofsson, Brandon Montour · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 3:37STLTroy BrouwerAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Robert Thomas · Snap, 0.20 xG1–1
- P2 19:51BUFJohan LarssonAssists: Zach Bogosian, Jimmy Vesey · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–2
- P3 3:52STLAlex PietrangeloAssists: David Perron, Tyler Bozak · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 5:46BUFJack EichelGWGAssists: Sam Reinhart, Victor Olofsson · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 19:09BUFZemgus GirgensonsENAssists: Johan Larsson, Henri Jokiharju · Wrist, 0.68 xG2–4
- P3 19:58BUFJack EichelENAssists: Zemgus Girgensons · Wrist, 0.55 xG2–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 7:04STLJay Bouwmeester: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:20BUFJeff Skinner: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:23BUFJack Eichel: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:52STLRobert Bortuzzo: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBrouwer – Barbashev – Thomas9:37
xG 0.53–0.22 (71%)attempts 11–7goals 1–1
- Schenn – Schwartz – Kyrou10:39
xG 0.20–0.12 (62%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Brouwer – de la Rose – Barbashev2:05
xG 0.06–0.02 (75%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Perron – Bozak – O'Reilly13:56
xG 0.25–0.54 (31%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Dunn7:15
xG 0.23–0.07 (77%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Parayko – Dunn3:18
xG 0.10–0.01 (89%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Faulk10:19
xG 0.14–0.18 (44%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Larsson – Girgensons9:17
xG 0.37–0.17 (68%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Reinhart – Olofsson – Eichel13:26
xG 0.52–0.35 (59%)attempts 12–13goals 2–1
- Johansson – Vesey – Asplund9:59
xG 0.11–0.20 (36%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Skinner – Rodrigues – Mittelstadt6:59
xG 0.00–0.30 (0%)attempts 0–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRistolainen – Montour15:33
xG 0.53–0.33 (62%)attempts 13–12goals 2–0
- Bogosian – Miller15:30
xG 0.37–0.42 (47%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
- McCabe – Jokiharju15:05
xG 0.23–0.34 (41%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).