Thu, Dec 12, 2019·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Calgary Flames 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 110 | 113 | 011 | 234 |
| CGY | 19 | 08 | 37 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:24TORJohn TavaresAssists: Mitch Marner, Tyson Barrie · Snap, 0.20 xG1–0
- P1 16:23CGYTravis HamonicAssists: Sean Monahan, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 14:06TORMitch MarnerAssists: John Tavares, Cody Ceci · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 0:19CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 1:59CGYMichael FrolikGWGAssists: Tobias Rieder · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 2:49CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Travis Hamonic, Sean Monahan · Tip-in, 0.05 xG2–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 18:15TORJustin Holl: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:05CGYMark Jankowski: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:26CGYElias Lindholm: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:51CGYTravis Hamonic: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Aberg – Petan4:01
xG 0.18–0.06 (73%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
- Tavares – Hyman – Marner14:37
xG 1.13–1.06 (52%)attempts 21–19goals 2–2
- Nylander – Kapanen – Matthews10:19
xG 0.46–0.41 (53%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Engvall – Mikheyev8:16
xG 0.21–0.32 (40%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Ceci – Dermott13:20
xG 0.39–0.40 (49%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Holl14:48
xG 0.77–0.86 (47%)attempts 18–11goals 0–2
- Barrie – Rielly15:29
xG 0.94–1.17 (44%)attempts 17–21goals 2–2
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestLindholm – Mangiapane – Tkachuk13:10
xG 1.35–0.57 (70%)attempts 16–11goals 0–1
- Backlund – Gaudreau – Monahan9:08
xG 0.52–0.38 (58%)attempts 10–9goals 3–0
- Lucic – Gaudreau – Ryan3:22
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Frolik – Rieder – Jankowski8:53
xG 0.37–0.35 (51%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Hanifin11:53
xG 0.81–0.63 (56%)attempts 13–13goals 2–1
- Giordano – Hamonic2:01
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Hamonic – Brodie3:46
xG 0.25–0.09 (74%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).