Sat, Dec 21, 2019·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Detroit Red Wings 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 010 | 013 | 17 | 130 |
| TOR | 010 | 16 | 37 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 17:10TORZach HymanAssists: Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.39 xG0–1
- P3 2:18TORAuston MatthewsPPGWGAssists: John Tavares, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–2
- P3 8:51TORZach HymanAssists: Auston Matthews · Backhand, 0.16 xG0–3
- P3 13:39TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Mitch Marner, Zach Hyman · Snap, 0.18 xG0–4
- P3 18:16DETTyler BertuzziPPAssists: Andreas Athanasiou, Robby Fabbri · Wrist, 0.43 xG1–4
Penalties (13)
- P1 6:52DETAnthony Mantha: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:18TORAlexander Kerfoot: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:18DETRobby Fabbri: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:04TORJake Muzzin: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:39DETFilip Zadina: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 18:05DETAnthony Mantha: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:05TORJake Muzzin: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 18:05TORJake Muzzin: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 18:16TORTravis Dermott: Abusive language10 min
- P3 19:26TORJustin Holl: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:26DETAndreas Athanasiou: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:26DETAndreas Athanasiou: Kneeing2 min
- P3 19:26DETAndreas Athanasiou: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Bertuzzi – Fabbri5:47
xG 0.59–0.24 (71%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Athanasiou – Bertuzzi – Fabbri3:01
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Helm – Glendening – Athanasiou5:41
xG 0.49–0.46 (52%)attempts 8–2goals 0–1
- Erne – Perlini – Ehn4:03
xG 0.05–0.04 (59%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNemeth – Bowey2:41
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Green – Nemeth16:28
xG 0.91–0.86 (51%)attempts 16–13goals 0–1
- Lashoff – Bowey13:00
xG 0.33–0.29 (53%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Marner – Matthews4:35
xG 0.85–0.04 (96%)attempts 5–1goals 3–0
- Gauthier – Timashov – Moore7:53
xG 0.25–0.13 (67%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Tavares – Engvall – Mikheyev5:37
xG 0.14–0.02 (85%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Tavares – Hyman – Marner6:49
xG 0.31–0.28 (52%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Dermott15:02
xG 0.55–0.27 (68%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Muzzin – Holl13:52
xG 0.65–0.53 (55%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Barrie – Rielly16:51
xG 1.08–1.14 (49%)attempts 19–23goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).