Sat, Dec 28, 2019·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Montréal Canadiens 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 220 | 110 | 113 | 443 |
| TBL | 110 | 310 | 110 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:08MTLJesperi KotkaniemiUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 10:00MTLMax DomiAssists: Nick Suzuki, Jeff Petry · Snap, 0.07 xG2–0
- P1 19:01TBLAlex KillornAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 1:34TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Victor Hedman, Alex Killorn · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–2
- P2 4:56TBLMitchell StephensAssists: Victor Hedman, Andrei Vasilevskiy · Deflected, 0.12 xG2–3
- P2 12:00TBLAlex KillornAssists: Anthony Cirelli, Victor Hedman · Snap, 0.05 xG2–4
- P2 12:13MTLBen ChiarotAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Phillip Danault · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–4
- P3 0:55TBLAnthony CirelliGWGAssists: Victor Hedman · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–5
- P3 18:32MTLJordan WealPPAssists: Tomas Tatar, Brendan Gallagher · Slap, 0.30 xG4–5
Penalties (3)
- P2 14:26MTLNate Thompson: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:37TBLMathieu Joseph: Boarding2 min
- P3 16:48TBLPatrick Maroon: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Gallagher – Danault13:54
xG 0.75–0.43 (63%)attempts 17–8goals 1–1
- Weal – Cousins – Kotkaniemi10:36
xG 0.59–0.31 (66%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Thompson – Barber – Poehling6:50
xG 0.35–0.42 (46%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – Domi – Suzuki11:18
xG 0.32–1.20 (21%)attempts 9–15goals 1–4
Defence pairs
- bestChiarot – Fleury3:08
xG 0.35–0.19 (65%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Weber – Chiarot15:46
xG 0.81–0.68 (54%)attempts 17–13goals 0–1
- Petry – Mete3:15
xG 0.15–0.09 (63%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Stamkos – Cirelli14:17
xG 0.95–0.32 (75%)attempts 15–18goals 4–0
- Maroon – Paquette – Stephens7:40
xG 0.74–0.51 (59%)attempts 9–12goals 1–1
- Johnson – Gourde – Joseph8:51
xG 0.31–0.16 (65%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Palat – Kucherov – Point15:02
xG 0.65–1.19 (35%)attempts 14–18goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Rutta12:21
xG 1.16–0.27 (81%)attempts 17–9goals 3–1
- Hedman – Sergachev2:03
xG 0.47–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
- Shattenkirk – Hedman3:29
xG 0.19–0.04 (84%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).