Sun, Dec 29, 2019·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Detroit Red Wings 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 09 | 15 | 06 | 120 |
| TBL | 013 | 114 | 112 | 239 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:10TBLOndrej PalatAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 17:54DETRobby FabbriAssists: Filip Hronek, Andreas Athanasiou · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–1
- P3 5:33TBLBrayden PointPPGWGAssists: Victor Hedman, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:54TBLPatrick Maroon: Boarding2 min
- P1 12:56DETMike Green: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:02DETBrendan Perlini: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:58DETTrevor Daley: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:32TBLMikhail Sergachev: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:51DETAdam Erne: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestGlendening – Fabbri – Zadina4:04
xG 0.22–0.08 (74%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Athanasiou – Fabbri – Zadina3:33
xG 0.15–0.03 (83%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Abdelkader – Perlini – Ehn4:49
xG 0.03–0.07 (27%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Athanasiou – Bertuzzi – Larkin12:23
xG 0.16–0.27 (37%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNemeth – Hronek2:20
xG 0.14–0.05 (73%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
- Daley – Hronek13:53
xG 0.38–0.34 (53%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
- Daley – Green2:09
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Kucherov – Point14:03
xG 0.67–0.25 (72%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Killorn – Stamkos – Cirelli12:20
xG 0.41–0.18 (70%)attempts 16–3goals 0–0
- Johnson – Gourde – Joseph7:23
xG 0.27–0.19 (59%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Maroon – Paquette – Stephens8:14
xG 0.21–0.23 (48%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Sergachev14:07
xG 0.65–0.10 (87%)attempts 18–5goals 0–0
- Hedman – Sergachev2:17
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Hedman – Cernak12:56
xG 0.36–0.15 (71%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).