Sun, Dec 29, 2019·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Dallas Stars 4, Arizona Coyotes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 05 | 08 | 412 | 425 |
| ARI | 222 | 08 | 05 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:42ARITaylor HallAssists: Conor Garland, Christian Dvorak · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–1
- P1 18:02ARIConor GarlandAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Carl Soderberg · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P3 2:18DALJamie BennAssists: Tyler Seguin, Esa Lindell · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 10:46DALAlexander RadulovAssists: Andrej Sekera, Jamie Benn · Slap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 15:51DALRoope HintzGWGAssists: Denis Gurianov, John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–2
- P3 18:24DALMattias JanmarkENAssists: Andrej Sekera · Wrist, 0.50 xG4–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 9:48ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Interference2 min
- P1 15:57DALCorey Perry: Cross checking2 min
- P1 19:36DALEsa Lindell: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 2:43DALJamie Oleksiak: Interference2 min
- P2 15:58ARIJason Demers: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:55ARIPhil Kessel: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:49DALBlake Comeau: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:49DALJamie Benn: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:49ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Faksa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRadulov – Benn – Seguin10:24
xG 0.58–0.12 (82%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Pavelski – Hintz – Gurianov3:54
xG 0.27–0.06 (81%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Pavelski – Janmark – Hintz3:50
xG 0.17–0.02 (88%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Radulov – Seguin – Janmark2:15
xG 0.16–0.03 (83%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Lindell10:11
xG 0.54–0.11 (83%)attempts 11–7goals 2–0
- Oleksiak – Heiskanen12:02
xG 0.61–0.42 (59%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Sekera – Polak9:34
xG 0.24–0.20 (54%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestHall – Dvorak – Garland10:05
xG 0.94–0.24 (80%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Kessel – Stepan – Crouse4:11
xG 0.21–0.18 (53%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Richardson – Kessel – Crouse3:30
xG 0.06–0.08 (43%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Kessel – Hall – Dvorak2:09
xG 0.04–0.22 (15%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNess – Lyubushkin8:52
xG 0.75–0.42 (64%)attempts 8–9goals 1–2
- Goligoski – Chychrun16:24
xG 0.55–0.41 (58%)attempts 19–10goals 1–0
- Demers – Ekman-Larsson15:29
xG 0.19–1.20 (14%)attempts 12–22goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).