Tue, Dec 31, 2019·Gila River Arena, Glendale
St. Louis Blues 1, Arizona Coyotes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 111 | 018 | 010 | 139 |
| ARI | 111 | 08 | 27 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:05ARIConor GarlandPPAssists: Alex Goligoski, Jakob Chychrun · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 14:53STLTyler BozakAssists: Alexander Steen, Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P3 7:20ARIPhil KesselPPGWGAssists: Lawson Crouse, Jakob Chychrun · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 19:08ARINick SchmaltzENAssists: Carl Soderberg, Derek Stepan · Wrist, 0.68 xG1–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:08STLJordan Kyrou: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:02STLIvan Barbashev: Holding2 min
- P1 16:02STLIvan Barbashev: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 1:41ARIAntti Raanta: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:53ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:39ARICarl Soderberg: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:09ARIJason Demers: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:28STLJacob de la Rose: Boarding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richardson won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestMacEachern – de la Rose – Barbashev7:09
xG 1.22–0.22 (85%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Perron – O'Reilly – Sundqvist13:59
xG 1.20–0.40 (75%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Steen – Bozak – Thomas6:53
xG 0.37–0.34 (52%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Schenn – Schwartz – Kyrou7:11
xG 0.12–0.90 (11%)attempts 5–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Dunn5:27
xG 0.84–0.02 (98%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – Faulk11:17
xG 0.54–0.35 (61%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Parayko – Dunn3:23
xG 0.23–0.30 (43%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestKessel – Stepan – Crouse7:38
xG 0.49–0.23 (68%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Hall – Dvorak – Garland11:12
xG 1.12–0.86 (57%)attempts 19–9goals 0–1
- Richardson – Hinostroza – Fischer8:30
xG 0.14–0.45 (23%)attempts 1–10goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Schmaltz – Keller7:30
xG 0.22–1.40 (13%)attempts 2–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Demers – Ekman-Larsson14:06
xG 1.16–1.48 (44%)attempts 13–21goals 0–0
- Oesterle – Lyubushkin14:29
xG 0.39–0.81 (33%)attempts 9–14goals 0–1
- Goligoski – Chychrun12:39
xG 0.24–1.09 (18%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).