Thu, Jan 2, 2020·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Toronto Maple Leafs 6, Winnipeg Jets 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 28 | 39 | 111 | 628 |
| WPG | 014 | 323 | 011 | 348 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:24TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Adam Brooks · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 9:00TORKasperi KapanenUnassisted · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–0
- P2 3:45WPGKyle ConnorPPAssists: Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 7:44WPGPatrik LaineAssists: Neal Pionk, Connor Hellebuyck · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 9:02TORTravis DermottAssists: Alexander Kerfoot, William Nylander · Tip-in, 0.23 xG3–2
- P2 9:37TORPierre EngvallGWGAssists: Kasperi Kapanen, Jason Spezza · Slap, 0.04 xG4–2
- P2 12:48WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Kyle Connor · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–3
- P2 16:52TORMitch MarnerPPAssists: Tyson Barrie, Auston Matthews · Slap, 0.07 xG5–3
- P3 8:45TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Alexander Kerfoot, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.14 xG6–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 10:28TORTyson Barrie: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:34TORJason Spezza: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 10:34WPGNicholas Shore: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:40WPGMathieu Perreault: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 19:18WPGMason Appleton: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wheeler won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Kerfoot – Nylander11:12
xG 1.15–0.55 (68%)attempts 13–12goals 2–0
- Hyman – Marner – Matthews13:26
xG 0.69–0.50 (58%)attempts 13–18goals 0–1
- Gauthier – Marchment – Brooks5:12
xG 0.42–0.29 (59%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Spezza – Kapanen – Engvall10:06
xG 0.30–0.38 (44%)attempts 7–8goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Dermott11:20
xG 1.52–0.21 (88%)attempts 17–6goals 1–0
- Rielly – Ceci2:27
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Marincin – Holl14:12
xG 0.69–0.50 (58%)attempts 13–15goals 2–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestScheifele – Connor – Laine13:27
xG 1.44–0.88 (62%)attempts 21–13goals 1–2
- Wheeler – Perreault – Ehlers3:03
xG 0.15–0.02 (87%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Shore – Harkins – Appleton4:15
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Perreault – Bourque – Lowry5:57
xG 0.45–0.36 (55%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPoolman – Morrissey19:00
xG 1.40–1.28 (52%)attempts 27–17goals 1–3
- Sbisa – Pionk17:40
xG 0.71–0.84 (46%)attempts 18–16goals 1–1
- Bitetto – Dahlstrom10:54
xG 0.39–0.55 (42%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).