Sat, Jan 4, 2020·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Tampa Bay Lightning 5, Ottawa Senators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 07 | 27 | 314 | 528 |
| OTT | 07 | 314 | 07 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:46OTTChris TierneyAssists: Christian Jaros · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 2:40TBLCarter VerhaegheAssists: Victor Hedman, Yanni Gourde · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 3:45TBLKevin ShattenkirkUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 11:40OTTJean-Gabriel PageauPPAssists: Drake Batherson, Tyler Ennis · Snap, 0.18 xG2–2
- P2 19:51OTTMark BorowieckiAssists: Artem Anisimov, Thomas Chabot · Slap, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 8:37TBLBrayden PointAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Nikita Kucherov · Snap, 0.10 xG3–3
- P3 18:30TBLTyler JohnsonGWGAssists: Victor Hedman, Ondrej Palat · Deflected, 0.12 xG4–3
- P3 19:53TBLAlex KillornENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.56 xG5–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 4:41OTTConnor Brown: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:00TBLErik Cernak: Interference2 min
- P1 14:10OTTAndreas Englund: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:10TBLPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:34TBLRyan McDonagh: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:48OTTCody Goloubef: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:55TBLNikita Kucherov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 16:46OTTBrady Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:46TBLAnthony Cirelli: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:48TBLKevin Shattenkirk: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:01TBLAnthony Cirelli: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:01OTTBrady Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00White won the faceoff against Stamkos
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestGourde – Verhaeghe – Stephens7:52
xG 0.69–0.02 (97%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Point4:47
xG 0.55–0.07 (89%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Johnson – Palat – Cirelli2:56
xG 0.46–0.11 (81%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Palat – Kucherov – Point7:53
xG 0.36–0.46 (44%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSergachev – Rutta4:53
xG 0.51–0.12 (81%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Sergachev9:05
xG 0.59–0.33 (64%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- McDonagh – Cernak4:46
xG 0.06–0.02 (72%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestAnisimov – Boedker – Balcers5:41
xG 0.51–0.09 (85%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Tierney – Batherson5:03
xG 0.28–0.05 (86%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Tierney – Brown – Paul2:51
xG 0.25–0.06 (81%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Ennis – White – Tkachuk9:13
xG 0.60–0.70 (46%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Chabot2:27
xG 0.74–0.03 (96%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Englund – Jaros4:55
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Reilly – Jaros4:01
xG 0.02–0.06 (28%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).