Sat, Jan 4, 2020·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Arizona Coyotes 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 010 | 07 | 212 | 229 |
| ARI | 312 | 16 | 24 | 622 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:33ARIBrad RichardsonAssists: Jakob Chychrun, Vinnie Hinostroza · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 13:30ARIJordan OesterleAssists: Ilya Lyubushkin, Nick Schmaltz · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
- P1 16:15ARIClayton KellerPPGWGAssists: Taylor Hall, Phil Kessel · Snap, 0.14 xG0–3
- P2 19:59ARILawson CrouseAssists: Derek Stepan, Alex Goligoski · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–4
- P3 3:00PHITyler PitlickUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–4
- P3 4:27ARIClayton KellerAssists: Nick Schmaltz · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–5
- P3 8:46PHIJustin BraunAssists: Sean Couturier, Shayne Gostisbehere · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–5
- P3 17:36ARIDerek StepanENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.53 xG2–6
Penalties (11)
- P1 5:41PHISean Couturier: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 15:23PHITravis Sanheim: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 17:24ARIVinnie Hinostroza: Interference2 min
- P2 4:36PHIScott Laughton: Interference2 min
- P2 8:18ARIChristian Dvorak: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:48ARIJordan Oesterle: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:22PHIClaude Giroux: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:26PHIScott Laughton: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:00PHITravis Konecny: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00ARIVinnie Hinostroza: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:39ARIPhil Kessel: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestPitlick – Raffl – Aube-Kubel4:34
xG 0.26–0.03 (89%)attempts 10–2goals 0–1
- Laughton – Raffl – Farabee2:59
xG 0.36–0.14 (72%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Giroux – van Riemsdyk – Pitlick3:38
xG 0.08–0.05 (61%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Andreoff – Laughton – Farabee4:48
xG 0.09–0.15 (37%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – Gostisbehere10:15
xG 0.52–0.13 (80%)attempts 16–4goals 2–1
- Niskanen – Provorov12:40
xG 0.51–0.65 (44%)attempts 14–10goals 0–2
- Sanheim – Myers11:18
xG 0.19–0.66 (23%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestSoderberg – Schmaltz – Keller8:11
xG 0.59–0.41 (59%)attempts 8–9goals 2–0
- Richardson – Hinostroza – Fischer8:28
xG 0.34–0.21 (62%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Hall – Dvorak – Garland8:32
xG 0.34–0.36 (48%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
- Kessel – Stepan – Crouse8:57
xG 0.06–0.34 (15%)attempts 3–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOesterle – Lyubushkin10:21
xG 0.46–0.37 (55%)attempts 6–12goals 1–1
- Goligoski – Chychrun13:13
xG 0.43–0.60 (42%)attempts 10–16goals 2–0
- Demers – Ekman-Larsson11:14
xG 0.17–0.37 (31%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).