Sun, Jan 5, 2020·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Carolina Hurricanes 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 25 | 117 | 04 | 326 |
| CAR | 013 | 05 | 111 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:36TBLMitchell StephensAssists: Carter Verhaeghe, Nikita Kucherov · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 4:44TBLSteven StamkosGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–0
- P2 5:19TBLBrayden PointAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–0
- P3 11:48CARAndrei SvechnikovAssists: Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce · Snap, 0.11 xG3–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:24CARNino Niederreiter: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:55TBLMikhail Sergachev: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:46CARJoel Edmundson: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:30TBLErik Cernak: Interference2 min
- P3 17:34TBLPatrick Maroon: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 17:34TBLPatrick Maroon: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Aho won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Palat – Cirelli10:57
xG 1.90–0.31 (86%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Gourde – Verhaeghe – Stephens7:13
xG 0.58–0.12 (82%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Point11:19
xG 0.31–0.44 (41%)attempts 3–14goals 2–1
- Killorn – Maroon – Paquette9:50
xG 0.11–0.46 (19%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Sergachev15:56
xG 1.96–0.15 (93%)attempts 15–4goals 1–0
- Hedman – Rutta14:20
xG 0.35–0.46 (43%)attempts 4–11goals 1–0
- Coburn – Cernak12:11
xG 0.66–1.12 (37%)attempts 7–17goals 1–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Foegele – Svechnikov11:01
xG 0.75–0.31 (70%)attempts 11–3goals 1–2
- Niederreiter – Teravainen – Aho10:37
xG 0.32–0.11 (74%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Martinook – McGinn – Wallmark7:22
xG 0.29–0.40 (42%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Haula – Dzingel – Necas10:04
xG 0.55–1.90 (22%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – Pesce2:05
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
- Edmundson – Fleury11:56
xG 0.22–0.25 (47%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Hamilton – Slavin17:19
xG 0.47–0.74 (39%)attempts 13–7goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).