Mon, Jan 6, 2020·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Edmonton Oilers 6, Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 117 | 39 | 29 | 635 |
| TOR | 011 | 318 | 17 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:51EDMOscar KlefbomAssists: Adam Larsson, Connor McDavid · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 0:34EDMDarnell NurseAssists: Connor McDavid, Ethan Bear · Snap, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 1:45EDMKailer YamamotoAssists: Caleb Jones, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–0
- P2 2:24TORJason SpezzaAssists: Pierre Engvall, Kasperi Kapanen · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–1
- P2 13:41EDMAlex ChiassonAssists: Joakim Nygard, Kris Russell · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–1
- P2 16:22TORFrederik GauthierAssists: Mason Marchment, Adam Brooks · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–2
- P2 19:13TORPierre EngvallAssists: Justin Holl, Kasperi Kapanen · Deflected, 0.07 xG4–3
- P3 6:26EDMLeon DraisaitlPPGWGAssists: Alex Chiasson, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.13 xG5–3
- P3 11:26EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.26 xG6–3
- P3 13:18TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: Tyson Barrie, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.08 xG6–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 12:57TORTravis Dermott: Interference2 min
- P1 15:50TORJustin Holl: Holding2 min
- P2 6:00EDMKailer Yamamoto: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:37EDMRiley Sheahan: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:28TORAlexander Kerfoot: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 5:57TORJustin Holl: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:45EDMJujhar Khaira: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:45TORTravis Dermott: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:02EDMCaleb Jones: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 15:41TORJustin Holl: Holding2 min
- P3 18:25EDMGaetan Haas: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestNeal – Kassian – McDavid13:43
xG 0.96–0.27 (78%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Sheahan – Archibald – Khaira6:51
xG 0.31–0.20 (61%)attempts 5–6goals 0–2
- Chiasson – Nygard – Haas4:39
xG 0.39–0.30 (56%)attempts 4–5goals 1–1
- Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl – Yamamoto10:58
xG 0.40–0.75 (35%)attempts 10–19goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestNurse – Bear16:04
xG 0.73–0.28 (73%)attempts 19–8goals 1–1
- Russell – Jones8:31
xG 0.68–0.37 (65%)attempts 8–10goals 2–1
- Larsson – Nurse2:14
xG 0.04–0.02 (66%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKerfoot – Kapanen – Engvall3:41
xG 0.18–0.02 (90%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Gauthier – Marchment – Brooks3:04
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Hyman – Marner – Matthews9:17
xG 0.48–0.32 (59%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Tavares – Marner – Matthews2:06
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Rielly16:16
xG 0.85–0.55 (60%)attempts 24–11goals 0–1
- Ceci – Dermott5:11
xG 0.25–0.10 (72%)attempts 8–2goals 1–1
- Marincin – Ceci4:39
xG 0.10–0.13 (42%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).